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Evidence of eligibility manipulation for conditional cash transfer programs

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  • Firpo, Sergio Pinheiro
  • Pieri, Renan Gomes de
  • Pedroso Junior, Euclides
  • Souza, André Portela Fernandes de

Abstract

This paper assesses whether eligibility for conditional cash transfer programs have been manipulated, as well as the impact of this phenomenon on time allocation within households. To perform this analysis, we use data from the 2006 PNAD (Brazilian national household survey) and investigate the eligibility manipulation for the Bolsa Família (Family Stipend) program during this time period. The program assists families with a monthly per capita income of around R$120.00 (US$60.00). By applying the tests developed by McCrary (2008), we find suggestive evidence that individuals manipulate their income by voluntarily reducing their labor supply in order to become eligible to the program. Moreover, the reduction in labor supply is greater among women, especially single or divorced mothers. This evidence raises some concern about the unintended consequences related to the eligibility criteria utilized by Bolsa Família, as well as the program’s impact on individuals living in extreme poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Firpo, Sergio Pinheiro & Pieri, Renan Gomes de & Pedroso Junior, Euclides & Souza, André Portela Fernandes de, 2013. "Evidence of eligibility manipulation for conditional cash transfer programs," Textos para discussão 352, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:352
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tavares, Priscilla Albuquerque, 2010. "Efeito do Programa Bolsa Família sobre a oferta de trabalho das mães," Revista Economia e Sociedade, Instituto de Economia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), vol. 41, pages 1-23, December.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
    3. Emmanuel Skoufias & Vincenzo Di Maro, 2008. "Conditional Cash Transfers, Adult Work Incentives, and Poverty," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 935-960.
    4. Maluccio, John A. & Flores, Rafael, 2005. "Impact evaluation of a conditional cash transfer program: the Nicaraguan Red de Protección Social," Research reports 141, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    6. Samir Cury & Allexandro Mori Coelho & Isabela Callegari, 2010. "The Impacts of Income Transfer Programs on Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil: An Integrated Microsimulation and Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2010-20, PEP-MPIA.
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    8. Andrea Rodrigues Ferro & Ana Lucia Kassouf & Deborah Levison, 2011. "The Impact Ofconditional Cash Transfer Programs On Household Work Decisions In Brazil," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 208, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Flavio Marques & Simone Covre & Enlinson Mattos, 2008. "Oferta de trabalho e transferências: Evidências do efeito das condições impostas pelo programa Bolsa-Família," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807141223420, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. Fabio Veras Soares & Rafael Perez Ribas & Rafael Guerreiro Osório, 2007. "Avaliando o Impacto do Programa Bolsa Família: Uma Comparação com Programas de Transferência Condicionada de Renda de outros Países," Publications Portuguese 1, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
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    12. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    13. Miguel Nathan Foguel & Ricardo Paes de Barros, 2008. "The Effects of Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes on Adult Labour Supply: An Empirical Analysis Using a Time-Series-Cross-Section," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211655420, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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    Cited by:

    1. Samir Cury & Euclides Pedrozo, 2016. "Cash Transfer Policies, Taxation and the Fall in Inequality in Brazil An Integrated Microsimulation-CGE Analysis
      [equilibrium model, microsimulation model, Brazil. Classification-JEL: C68, D58, I38      ," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 55-85.
    2. Bazzi, Samuel & Sumarto, Sudarno & Suryahadi, Asep, 2015. "It's all in the timing: Cash transfers and consumption smoothing in a developing country," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 267-288.
    3. Barrientos, Armando & Debowicz, Darío & Woolard, Ingrid, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Bolsa Família outcomes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-40.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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