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Why foreign savings fail to cause growth

  • Gala, Paulo Sérgio de Oliveira Simões
  • Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser

Este artigo é uma formalização da crítica à estratégia do crescimento com poupança externa que um de seus autores vem sendo fazendo nos últimos anos. Apesar dos países de renda média serem pobres de capital, os déficits em conta corrente (poupança externa), financiado seja por empréstimos ou por investimentos externos diretos, não irá aumentar a taxa de acumulação de capital ou terá pouco impacto sobre ela, uma vez que os déficits de conta corrente estarão associados taxas de câmbio apreciadas, ordenados e salários aumentados artificialmente e altos níveis de consumo. Consequentemente, a taxa de substituição da poupança externa pela interna será relativamente alta, e o país será obrigado não a investir e crescer, mas a consumir. Apenas quando há grandes oportunidades de investimento, estimuladas por uma ampla diferença entre a taxa de lucro esperada e a taxa de juros de longo prazo, a propensão marginal ao consumo diminuirá suficientemente, a ponto de o lucro adicional originário do fluxo de capital estrangeiro ser usado para investimento, ao invés de para consumo. Neste caso especial, a taxa de substituição de poupança externa pela interna tenderá a ser menor e a poupança interna contribuirá positivamente para o crescimento

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Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 159.

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Date of creation: 16 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:159
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  1. Fry, Maxwell J, 1978. "Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 464-75, November.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Webb, Steven B. & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1991. "Household saving in developing countries : first cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 575, The World Bank.
  4. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Growth and external debt," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9302, CEPREMAP.
  5. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
  6. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 205-224.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 13704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
  9. Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser & Nakano, Yoshiaki, 2002. "Economic Growth With Foreign Saving?," Textos para discussão 118, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1995. "Capital inflows to Latin America with reference to the Asian experience," MPRA Paper 13840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 375-93, December.
  12. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-70, September.
  13. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-27, May.
  14. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser, 2002. "Financiamento para o Subdesenvolvimento, o Brasil e o Segundo Consenso de Washington," Textos para discussão 119, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  16. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2002. "Brazil's Quasi-Stagnation and the Growth cum Foreign Savings Strategy," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(4), pages 76-102, January.
  17. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Carmen Augusta Varela, 2004. "The second Washington consensus and Latin America's quasi-stagnation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 231-250, December.
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