Why foreign savings fail to cause growth
The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy that one of its authors has been doing in recent years. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciated exchange rates, artificially increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country gets indebted not to invest and grow but to consume. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected profit rate and the long term interest rate, the marginal propensity to consume will get down enough so that the additional income originated from foreign capital flows will be used for investment rather than for consumption. In this special case, the rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings tend to be small and foreign savings will contribute positively to growth.
|Date of creation:||16 Oct 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Rua Itapeva, 474, 13o andar, CEP 01332-000, São Paulo - SP|
Phone: 55 (011) 3799-3350
Fax: 55 (011) 3799-3357
Web page: http://eesp.fgv.br
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Carmen Augusta Varela, 2004. "The second Washington consensus and Latin America's quasi-stagnation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 231-250, December.
- Pereira, Luiz C. Bresser & Nakano, Yoshiaki, 2002. "Economic growth with foreign saving?," Textos para discussão 118, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980.
"Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
- Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
- Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-1170, September.
- Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
- Helene Poirson Ward & Luca A Ricci & Catherine A Pattillo, 2002. "External Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 02/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: a reinterpretation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 45-66, October.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 13704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Growth and external debt," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9302, CEPREMAP.
- Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Growth and External Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Webb, Steven B & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1992. "Household Saving in Developing Countries: First Cross-Country Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 529-547, September.
- Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus*Webb, Steven B.*Corsetti,, 1991. "Household saving in developing countries : first cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 575, The World Bank.
- Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2002. "Brazil's Quasi-Stagnation and the Growth cum Foreign Savings Strategy," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(4), pages 76-102, January.
- Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-627, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1995. "Capital inflows to Latin America with reference to the Asian experience," MPRA Paper 13840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 205-224.
- Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization and Growth: Was Mr. Mahathir Right?," NBER Working Papers 9427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pereira, Luiz C. Bresser, 2002. "Financiamento para o subdesenvolvimento, o Brasil e o segundo consenso de Washington," Textos para discussão 119, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Fry, Maxwell J, 1978. "Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 464-475, November.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)