The labour market impacts of leaving education when unemployment is high: evidence from Britain
We estimate the effects of initial labour market entry conditions on a range of subsequent job outcomes for men and women who entered the British labour market between 1991 and 2009, using data from the British Household Panel Survey and its successor Understanding Society. We find that the unemployment rate on leaving full-time education has large impacts on initial labour market outcomes including status, wages and employment stability, which persist over the subsequent ten years. These effects are more pronounced for men than women and indicate that young people entering the labour market during the current period of economic stagnation will suffer a lasting scar as a consequence.
|Date of creation:||12 Aug 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK|
Web page: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK|
Web: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/ Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Oyer, 2006. "Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 143-160, Summer.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Firm-specific Capital and Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1246-60, December.
- Yuji Genda & Ayako Kondo & Souichi Ohta, 2010. "Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
- McVicar, Duncan & Rice, Patricia, 2000.
"Participation in further education in England and Wales: an analysis of post-war trends,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
0014, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- McVicar, Duncan & Rice, Patricia, 2001. "Participation in Further Eduction in England and Wales: An Analysis of Post-War Trends," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 47-66, January.
- Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1990. "Empirical Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 202-29, April.
- Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
- Oreopoulos, Philip & Wachter, Till von & Heisz, Andrew, 2008.
"The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3578, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2006. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates," NBER Working Papers 12159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Damon Clark, 2011. "Do Recessions Keep Students in School? The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Enrolment in Post‐compulsory Education in England," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 523-545, 07.
- Alan Manning, 1999.
"Pretty Vacant: Recruitment in Low Wage Labour Markets,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0418, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Manning, Alan, 2000. " Pretty Vacant: Recruitment in Low-Wage Labour Markets," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(0), pages 747-70, Special I.
- Alan Manning, 1999. "Pretty vacant: recruitment in low wage labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Mary Gregory & Sara Connolly, 2007.
"Moving Down: Women`s Part-time Work and Occupational Change in Britain 1991-2001,"
Economics Series Working Papers
359, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Sara Connolly & Mary Gregory, 2008. "Moving Down: Women's Part-Time Work and Occupational Change in Britain 1991-2001," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(526), pages F52-F76, 02.
- Connolly, Sara & Gregory, Mary, 2007. "Moving Down: Women’s Part-time Work and Occupational Change in Britain 1991–2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3106, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Neal, Derek, 1999.
"The Complexity of Job Mobility among Young Men,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 237-61, April.
- James Banks & Rowena Crawford & Thomas Crossley & Carl Emmerson, 2012. "The effect of the financial crisis on older households in England," IFS Working Papers W12/09, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Micklewright, John & Pearson, Mark & Smith, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and Early School Leaving," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 163-69, Supplemen.
- Petrongolo, Barbara & San Segundo, Maria J., 2002. "Staying-on at school at 16: the impact of labor market conditions in Spain," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 353-365, August.
- Sara Connolly & Mary Gregory, 2009. "The part-time pay penalty: earnings trajectories of British Women," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(suppl_1), pages i76-i97, April.
- Patricia Rice, 1999. "The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 287-312.
- Tumino, Alberto & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "The impact of local labour market conditions on school leaving decisions," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-14, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Rampino, Tina & Taylor, Mark P., 2012. "Educational aspirations and attitudes over the business cycle," ISER Working Paper Series 2012-26, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Paul Oyer, 2008. "The Making of an Investment Banker: Stock Market Shocks, Career Choice, and Lifetime Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2601-2628, December.
- Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012.
"Who Suffers during Recessions?,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
- Meschi, Elena & Swaffield, Joanna K. & Vignoles, Anna, 2011. "The Relative Importance of Local Labour Market Conditions and Pupil Attainment on Post-Compulsory Schooling Decisions," IZA Discussion Papers 6143, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2010. "The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment, human capital accumulation, and wages," IEW - Working Papers 520, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Crawford, Rowena, 2013. "The effect of the financial crisis on the retirement plans of older workers in England," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 156-159.
- Illoong Kwon & Eva Meyersson Milgrom & Seiwoon Hwang, 2010. "Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages: Evidence from Sweden and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(3).
- Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
- Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2013-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jonathan Nears)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.