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Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation: Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data

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Listed:
  • Galanakis, Yannis
  • Savagar, Anthony

Abstract

We introduce a novel real-time dataset—Companies House Real-Time (CHRT)— that captures daily firm creation and dissolution activity for the full population of UK-registered companies. CHRT tracks official business demography statistics but is available months earlier, providing timely disaggregated indicators. We demonstrate that firm entry is a leading indicator of GDP and employment. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR), we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in firm entry raises GDP by 0.10.2% over the following year and generates persistent gains in employment and productivity. These results highlight the value of real-time administrative data for macroeconomic monitoring, and underscore the importance of business formation as a margin of adjustment during economic fluctuations. Our findings suggest that firm entry data should be integrated into early-warning systems and policy frameworks, particularly in times of crisis or structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Galanakis, Yannis & Savagar, Anthony, 2025. "Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation: Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data," Discussion Papers escoe-dp-2025-18, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence.
    • Handle: RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2025-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kimberly Bayard & Emin M. Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Javier Miranda & John J. Stevens, 2018. "Early-Stage Business Formation : An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-015, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    6. Gutiérrez, Germán & Jones, Callum & Philippon, Thomas, 2021. "Entry costs and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 77-91.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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