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Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation:Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data

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  • Anthony Savagar
  • Yannis Galanakis

Abstract

We introduce a novel real-time dataset, Companies House Real-Time (CHRT), that captures daily firm creation and dissolution activity for the full population of UK-registered companies. CHRT provides a timely measure of business formation, becoming available months before official business demography statistics. We show that incorporation activity leads taxable business births and contains forward-looking information about employment and output growth. Consistent with this, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) indicates that positive shocks to firm entry generate persistent increases in employment and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Savagar & Yannis Galanakis, 2026. "Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation:Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data," Papers 2606.01307, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.01307
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.01307
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