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Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation:Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data

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  • Anthony Savagar
  • Yannis Galanakis

Abstract

We introduce a novel real-time dataset, Companies House Real-Time (CHRT), that captures daily firm creation and dissolution activity for the full population of UK-registered companies. CHRT provides a timely measure of business formation, becoming available months before official business demography statistics. We show that incorporation activity leads taxable business births and contains forward-looking information about employment and output growth. Consistent with this, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) indicates that positive shocks to firm entry generate persistent increases in employment and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Savagar & Yannis Galanakis, 2026. "Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation:Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data," Papers 2606.01307, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.01307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger, 2023. "Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(2 (Fall)), pages 249-316.
    2. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    3. Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2012. "Firm entry, markups and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 670-685.
    4. Vivien Lewis & Roland Winkler, 2017. "Government Spending, Entry, And The Consumption Crowding‐In Puzzle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 943-972, August.
    5. Lewis, Vivien & Stevens, Arnoud, 2015. "Entry and markup dynamics in an estimated business cycle model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 14-35.
    6. Vivien Lewis & Roland Winkler, 2017. "Government Spending, Entry, And The Consumption Crowding‐In Puzzle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 943-972, August.
    7. Gutiérrez, Germán & Jones, Callum & Philippon, Thomas, 2021. "Entry costs and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 77-91.
    8. Emin Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Veronika Penciakova, 2021. "Business Formation: A Tale of Two Recessions," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 253-257, May.
    9. Jose Asturias & Emin Dinlersoz & John Haltiwanger & Rebecca Hutchinson, 2023. "Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 151-155, May.
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