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Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation:Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data

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  • Anthony Savagar
  • Yannis Galanakis

Abstract

We introduce a novel real-time dataset, Companies House Real-Time (CHRT), that captures daily firm creation and dissolution activity for the full population of UK-registered companies. CHRT provides a timely measure of business formation, becoming available months before official business demography statistics. We show that incorporation activity leads taxable business births and contains forward-looking information about employment and output growth. Consistent with this, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) indicates that positive shocks to firm entry generate persistent increases in employment and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Savagar & Yannis Galanakis, 2026. "Tracking the Economy through Firm Creation:Evidence from Real-Time Administrative Data," Papers 2606.01307, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.01307
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Gourio & Todd Messer & Michael Siemer, 2016. "Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-Level Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 214-218, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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