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Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers

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  • Kimberly Bayard
  • Emin Dinlersoz
  • Timothy Dunne
  • John Haltiwanger
  • Javier Miranda
  • John Stevens

Abstract

This paper reports on the development and analysis of a newly constructed dataset on the early stages of business formation. The data are based on applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) submitted in the United States, known as IRS Form SS-4 filings. The goal of the research is to develop high-frequency indicators of business formation at the national, state, and local levels. The analysis indicates that EIN applications provide forward-looking and very timely information on business formation. The signal of business formation provided by counts of applications is improved by using the characteristics of the applications to model the likelihood that applicants become employer businesses. The results also suggest that EIN applications are related to economic activity at the local level. For example, application activity is higher in counties that experienced higher employment growth since the end of the Great Recession, and application counts grew more rapidly in counties engaged in shale oil and gas extraction. Finally, the paper provides a description of new public-use dataset, the “Business Formation Statistics (BFS),” that contains new data series on business applications and formation. The initial release of the BFS shows that the number of business applications in the 3rd quarter of 2017 that have relatively high likelihood of becoming job creators is still far below pre-Great Recession levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly Bayard & Emin Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Javier Miranda & John Stevens, 2018. "Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers," NBER Working Papers 24364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24364
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Asturias & Emin Dinlersoz & John Haltiwanger & Rebecca Hutchinson & Alyson Plumb, 2021. "Business Applications as a Leading Economic Indicator?," Working Papers 21-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Henry R. Hyatt, 2022. "Firm age and job creation in the US," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 501-501, November.
    3. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Veronika Penciakova, 2023. "Local Origins of Business Formation," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2023(7), pages 1-12, November.
    4. John C. Haltiwanger, 2022. "Entrepreneurship during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the Business Formation Statistics," Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 9-42.
    5. Akcigit, Ufuk & Dinlersoz, Emin & Greenwood, Jeremy & Penciakova, Veronika, 2022. "Synergizing ventures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Emin Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Veronika Penciakova, 2021. "Business Formation: A Tale of Two Recessions," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 253-257, May.
    7. Catherine Buffington & Daniel Chapman & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger, 2021. "High Frequency Business Dynamics in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 21-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Cristiana Benedetti-Fasil & Petr Sedláček & Vincent Sterk, 2022. "Startups and employment following the COVID-19 pandemic: a calculator," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(111), pages 507-533.
    9. Lucas, David S., 2024. "The effect of regime change on entrepreneurship: A real options approach with evidence from US gubernatorial elections," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4).
    10. Catherine Buffington & Daniel Chapman & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger, 2021. "High-frequency data from the U.S. Census Bureau during the COVID-19 pandemic: small vs. new businesses," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 155-167, July.
    11. Ralph De Haas & Vincent Sterk & Neeltje Van Horen, 2022. "Start-up types and macroeconomic performance in Europe," Bank of England working papers 986, Bank of England.
    12. Lucia Foster & Alex He, 2022. "Correction: Technology and productivity growth," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(3), pages 120-120, July.
    13. Patel, Pankaj C., 2019. "Minimum wage and transition of non-employer firms intending to hire employees into employer firms: State-level evidence from the US," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 12(C).
    14. Emin Dinlersoz & Can Dogan & Nikolas Zolas, 2024. "Starting Up AI," Working Papers 24-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. John Haltiwanger, 2022. "Entrepreneurship in the twenty-first century," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 27-40, January.
    16. Catherine Buffington & Jason Fields & Lucia Foster, 2021. "Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses and People: Lessons from the Census Bureau's Experience," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 312-316, May.
    17. Emin Dinlersoz & Nathan Goldschlag & Mehmet Yorukoglu & Nikolas Zolas, 2023. "On The Role of Trademarks: From Micro Evidence to Macro Outcomes," Working Papers 23-16, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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