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Agricultural shocks and riots: A disaggregated analysis

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  • Christian Almer

    (University of Bath)

  • Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti

    (University of Geneva)

  • Manuel Oechslin

    (Tilburg University)

Abstract

Every year, riots cause a substantial number of fatalities in less-advanced countries. This paper explores the role of agricultural output shocks in explaining riots. Our theory predicts a negative relationship between the level of rioting and the deviation of the actual output from the average one. Relying on monthly data at the cell level (0.5×0.5 degrees), and using a drought index to proxy for output shocks, our empirical analysis confirms such a negative relationship for Sub-Saharan Africa: A one-standard-deviation decrease in the drought index rises the likelihood of a riot in a given cell and month by 8.4 percent. The use of highly disaggregated data accounts for the fact that riots are temporally and geographically confined events.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Almer & Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti & Manuel Oechslin, 2014. "Agricultural shocks and riots: A disaggregated analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers 24/14, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:eid:wpaper:40956
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    conflict; social unrest; economic shocks; disaggregated analysis;
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