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Economic shocks and civil conflict at the regional level

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  • Hodler, Roland
  • Raschky, Paul A.

Abstract

We study the effects of economic shocks on civil conflict at the subnational level using a panel dataset of 5689 administrative regions from 53 African countries with yearly observations from 1992 to 2010. We find that economic shocks, measured by nighttime light intensity and instrumented by lagged rainfall levels and droughts, increase the probability of civil conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A., 2014. "Economic shocks and civil conflict at the regional level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 530-533.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:124:y:2014:i:3:p:530-533
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.07.027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elias Papaioannou, 2014. "National Institutions and Subnational Development in Africa," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 151-213.
    2. Sutton, Paul C. & Costanza, Robert, 2002. "Global estimates of market and non-market values derived from nighttime satellite imagery, land cover, and ecosystem service valuation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 509-527, June.
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    5. Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 215-227, October.
    6. Mariaflavia Harari & Eliana La Ferrara, 2012. "Conflict, Climate and Cells: A disaggregated analysis," Working Papers 461, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    10. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2013. "Pre‐Colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 113-152, January.
    11. Doll, Christopher N.H. & Muller, Jan-Peter & Morley, Jeremy G., 2006. "Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light satellite imagery," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 75-92, April.
    12. Antonio Ciccone, 2013. "Estimating the Effect of Transitory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 4(2).
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    15. Roland Hodler & Paul A. Raschky, 2014. "Regional Favoritism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(2), pages 995-1033.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jeeman:v:86:y:2017:i:c:p:193-209 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Addison Tony & Niño-Zarazúa Miguel & Singhal Saurabh & Gisselquist Rachel M., 2015. "Needs vs expediency: Poverty reduction and social development in post-conflict countries," WIDER Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul A. & Tierney, Michael J., 2015. "Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China's Foreign Assistance," CEPR Discussion Papers 10704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2015. "Economic shocks in the fisheries sector and maritime piracy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 107-125.
    5. Almer, C & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jeremy & Oechslin, Manuel, 2014. "Agricultural shocks and riots:A disaggregated analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers 40956, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:eee:joepsy:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:184-198 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:deveco:v:132:y:2018:i:c:p:115-129 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:jcecon:v:45:y:2017:i:3:p:622-643 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christian Almer & Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti & Manuel Oechslin, 2014. "Growth Poles: Agricultural Shocks and Riots: A Disaggregated Analysis," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 14093, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
    10. De Luca, Giacomo & Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A. & Valsecchi, Michele, 2018. "Ethnic favoritism: An axiom of politics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 115-129.
    11. Kibriya, Shahriar & Xu, Zhicheng P. & Zhang, Yu, 2015. "Economic shocks, governance and violence: A subnational level analysis of Africa," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205321, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Achim Ahrens, 2015. "Civil conflicts in Africa: Climate, economic shocks, nighttime lights and spill-over effects," SEEC Discussion Papers 1501, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
    13. Skali, Ahmed, 2017. "Moralizing gods and armed conflict," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 184-198.
    14. Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy, 2018. "Measuring the Impact of Insurance on Urban Recovery with Light: The 2010-2011 New Zealand Earthquakes," CESifo Working Paper Series 7031, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic shocks; Civil conflict; Regional development;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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