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Economic shocks and civil conflict at the regional level

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  • Hodler, Roland
  • Raschky, Paul A.

Abstract

We study the effects of economic shocks on civil conflict at the subnational level using a panel dataset of 5689 administrative regions from 53 African countries with yearly observations from 1992 to 2010. We find that economic shocks, measured by nighttime light intensity and instrumented by lagged rainfall levels and droughts, increase the probability of civil conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A., 2014. "Economic shocks and civil conflict at the regional level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 530-533.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:124:y:2014:i:3:p:530-533
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.07.027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.
    2. Mariaflavia Harari & Eliana La Ferrara, 2012. "Conflict, Climate and Cells: A disaggregated analysis," Working Papers 461, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Besley, Timothy & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2014. "The Legacy of Historical Conflict: Evidence from Africa," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(02), pages 319-336, May.
    4. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2013. "Pre‐Colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 113-152, January.
    5. Elias Papaioannou, 2014. "National Institutions and Subnational Development in Africa," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 151-213.
    6. Antonio Ciccone, 2013. "Estimating the Effect of Transitory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 4(2).
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    8. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    9. Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 215-227, October.
    10. Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2014. "Drought and Civil War In Sub‐Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 201-244, March.
    11. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
    12. Roland Hodler & Paul A. Raschky, 2014. "Regional Favoritism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(2), pages 995-1033.
    13. Sutton, Paul C. & Costanza, Robert, 2002. "Global estimates of market and non-market values derived from nighttime satellite imagery, land cover, and ecosystem service valuation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 509-527, June.
    14. Doll, Christopher N.H. & Muller, Jan-Peter & Morley, Jeremy G., 2006. "Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light satellite imagery," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 75-92, April.
    15. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Almer, C & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jeremy & Oechslin, Manuel, 2014. "Agricultural shocks and riots:A disaggregated analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers 40956, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    2. Fuchs, Andreas & Dreher, Axel & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul, 2015. "Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China s Foreign Assistance," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112838, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. repec:eee:joepsy:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:184-198 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Tony Addison & Rachel Gisselquist & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Saurabh Singhal, 2015. "Needs vs Expediency - Poverty Reduction and Social Development in Post-Conflict Countries," Working Papers id:7371, eSocialSciences.
    5. Christian Almer & Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti & Manuel Oechslin, 2014. "Growth Poles: Agricultural Shocks and Riots: A Disaggregated Analysis," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 14093, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
    6. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2015. "Economic shocks in the fisheries sector and maritime piracy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 107-125.
    7. De Luca, Giacomo & Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A. & Valsecchi, Michele, 2018. "Ethnic favoritism: An axiom of politics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 115-129.
    8. repec:eee:jeeman:v:86:y:2017:i:c:p:193-209 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kibriya, Shahriar & Xu, Zhicheng P. & Zhang, Yu, 2015. "Economic shocks, governance and violence: A subnational level analysis of Africa," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205321, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Achim Ahrens, 2015. "Civil conflicts in Africa: Climate, economic shocks, nighttime lights and spill-over effects," SEEC Discussion Papers 1501, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
    11. Skali, Ahmed, 2017. "Moralizing gods and armed conflict," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 184-198.
    12. Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy, 2018. "Measuring the Impact of Insurance on Urban Recovery with Light: The 2010-2011 New Zealand Earthquakes," CESifo Working Paper Series 7031, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. repec:eee:jcecon:v:45:y:2017:i:3:p:622-643 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic shocks; Civil conflict; Regional development;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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