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Fixed on flexible rethink exchange rate regimes after the Great Recession

Author

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  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Kuester, Keith
  • Müller, Gernot J.

Abstract

We study how small open economies can escape from deflation and unemployment in a situation where the world economy is permanently depressed. Building on the framework of Eggertsson et al. (2016), we show that the transition to full employment and at-target inflation requires real and nominal depreciation of the exchange rate. However, because of adverse income and valuation effects from real depreciation, the escape can be beggar thy self, raising employment but actually lowering welfare. We show that as long as the economy remains financially open, domestic asset supply policies or reducing the effective lower bound on policy rates may be ineffective or even counterproductive. However, closing domestic capital markets does not necessarily enhance the monetary authorities’ ability to rescue the economy from stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J., 2017. "Fixed on flexible rethink exchange rate regimes after the Great Recession," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86154, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86154
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/86154/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amador, Manuel & Bianchi, Javier & Bocola, Luigi & Perri, Fabrizio, 2017. "Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 11928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Optimal capital controls and real exchange rate policies: A pecuniary externality perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 147-165.
    3. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    4. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1264-1283.
    5. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Sanjay R. Singh & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 581-634, November.
    6. Camila Casas & Federico J. Díez & Gita Gopinath & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2016. "Dominant Currency Paradigm," NBER Working Papers 22943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    8. Corsetti, G. & Mavroeidi, E. & Thwaites, G. & Wolf, M., 2016. "Step away from the zero lower bound: Small open economies in a world of secular stagnation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1645, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    10. Duarte, Margarida & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2008. "Monetary policy in the open economy revisited: The case for exchange-rate flexibility restored," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 949-957, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External shock; Great Recession; Exchange rate; Zero lower bound; Exchange rate peg; Currency union; Fiscal Multiplier; Benign coincidence;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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