IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/140416.html

Revisiting monetary policy and price stability in the green transition

Author

Listed:
  • Jackson, Andrew
  • Svartzman, Romain
  • Barmes, David
  • Pereira da Silva, Luiz Awazu

Abstract

Climate change and volatile fossil fuel prices increasingly drive macroeconomic and price instability. A successful green transition is a precondition for price stability in the long term but could generate inflationary pressures over shorter time horizons. A restrictive monetary response to such pressures would disproportionately affect the capital-intensive green investment needed for a transition. To maintain price stability without compromising the green transition, we propose adaptive inflation targeting, adjustments to monetary operations, and an institutional architecture for systematic monetary–fiscal coordination.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, Andrew & Svartzman, Romain & Barmes, David & Pereira da Silva, Luiz Awazu, 2026. "Revisiting monetary policy and price stability in the green transition," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 140416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:140416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/140416/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andréas Heinen & Jeetendra Khadan & Eric Strobl, 2019. "The Price Impact of Extreme Weather in Developing Countries," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1327-1342.
    2. Jackson, Andrew & Jackson, Tim, 2025. "Macroeconomic, sectoral and financial dynamics in energy transitions: A stock-flow consistent, input-output approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Warwick J McKibbin & Adele C Morris & Peter J Wilcoxen & Augustus J Panton, 2020. "Climate change and monetary policy: issues for policy design and modelling," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 579-603.
    4. Weijiang Liu & Tingting Liu & Yangyang Li & Min Liu, 2021. "Recycling Carbon Tax under Different Energy Efficiency Improvements: A CGE Analysis of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Brucal, Arlan & Roberts, Michael J., 2019. "Do energy efficiency standards hurt consumers? Evidence from household appliance sales," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 88-107.
    6. Dao, Mai & Dizioli, Allan Gloe & Jackson, Chris & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Leigh, Daniel, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18435, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Xiaojia Bao & Puyang Sun & Jianan Li, 2023. "The impacts of tropical storms on food prices: Evidence from China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 576-596, March.
    8. Parker, Miles & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana, 2026. "Overcoming structural barriers to the green transition," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    9. John E. T. Bistline & Neil R. Mehrotra & Catherine Wolfram, 2023. "Economic Implications of the Climate Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(1 (Spring), pages 77-182.
    10. David Amaglobeli & Mengfei Gu & Emine Hanedar & Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Celine Thevenot, 2023. "Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices," IMF Working Papers 2023/074, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Upton, Gregory B. & Snyder, Brian F., 2017. "Funding renewable energy: An analysis of renewable portfolio standards," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 205-216.
    12. Allen, Thomas & Boullot, Mathieu & Dées, Stéphane & de Gaye, Annabelle & Lisack, Noëmie & Thubin, Camille & Wegner, Oriane, 2025. "Using short-term scenarios to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Cevik, Serhan & Gwon, Gyowon, 2024. "This is going to hurt: Weather anomalies, supply chain pressures and inflation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    14. Bartocci, Anna & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2024. "“Green” fiscal policy measures and nonstandard monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Maximilian Konradt & Beatrice Weder, 2023. "Carbon Taxation and Greenflation: Evidence from Europe and Canada," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2518-2546.
    16. Gilbert E. Metcalf & James H. Stock, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe's Carbon Taxes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 265-286, July.
    17. Marta Suárez-Varela & Daniel Santabárbara, 2026. "Carbon Pricing and Inflation Volatility," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 22(3), pages 1-48, July.
    18. Karen Maguire & Abdul Munasib, 2018. "Electricity Price Increase in Texas: What is the Role of RPS?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(2), pages 293-316, February.
    19. Laurence Scialom, 2022. "Les banques centrales au défi de la transition écologique. Éloge de la plasticité," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 73(2), pages 219-242.
    20. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    21. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2021. "Carbon Taxes in Theory and Practice," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 245-265, October.
    22. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    23. Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & John Simon & Susan M. Wachter, 2016. "Global food prices and domestic inflation: some cross-country evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 665-687.
    24. Benjamin Carton & Christopher Evans & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Simon Voigts, 2023. "Getting to Know GMMET: The Global Macroeconomic Model for the Energy Transition," IMF Working Papers 2023/269, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Constant I. Tra, 2016. "Have Renewable Portfolio Standards Raised Electricity Rates? Evidence From U.S. Electric Utilities," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 184-189, January.
    26. Ferdinandusse, Marien & Nerlich, Carolin & Téllez, Mar Delgado, 2022. "Fiscal policies to mitigate climate change in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    27. Gnocato, Nicolò, 2025. "Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    28. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Diego R. Känzig & Maximilian Konradt, 2024. "Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe’s Carbon Pricing Initiatives," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1124, September.
    30. Yamazaki, Akio, 2017. "Jobs and climate policy: Evidence from British Columbia's revenue-neutral carbon tax," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 197-216.
    31. Philipp Beiter & Jérôme Guillet & Malte Jansen & Elizabeth Wilson & Lena Kitzing, 2024. "The enduring role of contracts for difference in risk management and market creation for renewables," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 20-26, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boto-García, David & Albert, Juan Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2024. "Carbon price shocks and tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Luca Fornaro & Veronica Guerrieri & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2025. "Monetary policy for the green transition," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 160.
    3. Sandra Batten & Stephen Millard, 2024. "Energy and Climate Policy in a DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 553, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Ahn, JaeBin, 2025. "Greenflation or greensulation? The case of fuel excise taxes and oil price pass-through," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Martin T. Bohl & Niklas Humann & Pierre L. Siklos, 2026. "The Monetary Policy–Commodities Nexus: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 1050-1082, April.
    6. Le, Anh H., 2025. "Climate change and Carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Morão, Hugo, 2024. "The impact of carbon policy news on the national energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Nicolás Aguila & Joscha Wullweber, 2024. "Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, March.
    9. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    10. Adrien Bilal & James H. Stock, 2025. "A Guide to Macroeconomics and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Schroeder, Christofer, 2026. "Employment effects of EU-ETS prices," Working Paper Series 3237, European Central Bank.
    12. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2023. "Carbon taxation: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1353-1388, September.
    13. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea & Boto-García, David, 2025. "Up in the air: How do carbon policy shocks affect air travel?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 54-68.
    14. Weber, Pierre-François & Afota, Amandine & Boeckelmann, Lukas & De Gaye, Annabelle & Dieppe, Alistair & Faubert, Violaine & Grieco, Fabio & Le Roux, Julien & Meunier, Baptiste & Munteanu, Bogdan & Nob, 2025. "The intersection between climate transition policies and geoeconomic fragmentation," Occasional Paper Series 366, European Central Bank.
    15. Moustabchir Abdelhamid & Ouakil Hicham & El Ouazzani Hicham & Lechheb Houda, 2026. "Carbon Taxes and Inflationary Pressures: A DSGE Exploration of Economic Responses and Macroeconomic Challenges," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 67(6), pages 4837-4860, June.
    16. Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2026. "Greenflation or greensulation? An examination of the disaggregated inflationary effect of environmental taxes in the EU-27," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    17. Lee, Kangoh, 2023. "Renewable portfolio standards and electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Giovanardi, Francesco & Kaldorf, Matthias, 2025. "Pro-cyclical emissions, real externalities, and optimal monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    19. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2014. "A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-430, September.
    20. Arora, Vipin & Tyers, Rod, 2012. "Asset arbitrage and the price of oil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 142-150.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • N0 - Economic History - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:140416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.