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Bioenergy and Global Land Use Change

  • Pavel Ciaian
  • d'Artis Kancs
  • Miroslava Rajcaniova

This is the first paper that estimates the global land use change impact of growth of the bioenergy sector. Applying time-series analytical mechanisms to fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodity prices and production, we estimate the long-rung relationship between energy prices, bioenergy production and the global land use change. Our results suggest that rising energy prices and bioenergy production significantly contribute to the global land use change both through the direct and indirect land use change impact. Globally, the total agricultural area yearly increases by 35578.1 thousand ha due to increasing oil price, and by 12125.1 thousand ha due to increasing biofuel production, which corresponds to 0.73% and 0.25% of the total world-wide agricultural area, respectively. Soya land use change and wheat land use change have the highest elasticities both with respect to oil price and biofuel production. In contrast, non-biomass crops (grassland and rice) have negative land use change elasticities. Region-specific results suggest that South America faces the largest yearly total land use change associated with oil price increase (+10600.7 thousand ha), whereas Asia (+8918.6 thousand ha), South America (+4024.9 thousand ha) and North America (+1311.5 thousand ha) have the largest yearly total land use change associated with increase in biofuel production.

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Paper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2012_12.

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Date of creation: 12 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_12
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  1. Piroli, Giuseppe & Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2012. "Land use change impacts of biofuels: Near-VAR evidence from the US," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 98-109.
  2. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Kancs, d'Artis & Wohlgemuth, Norbert, 2008. "Evaluation of renewable energy policies in an integrated economic-energy-environment model," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 128-139, January.
  4. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Negash, Martha, 2012. "Biofuels and Food Security: Micro-evidence from Ethiopia," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126793, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Matthias Diermeier & Torsten Schmidt, 2012. "Oil Price Effects on Land Use Competition – An Empirical Analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0340, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  7. Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2011. "Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 326-348, January.
  8. Swinton, Scott M. & Babcock, Bruce A. & James, Laura K. & Bandaru, Varaprasad, 2011. "Higher US crop prices trigger little area expansion so marginal land for biofuel crops is limited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5254-5258, September.
  9. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  10. Gardner Bruce, 2007. "Fuel Ethanol Subsidies and Farm Price Support," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-22, December.
  11. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Correlations between biofuels and related commodities before and during the food crisis: A taxonomy perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1380-1391.
  12. Peng, Ling & Liao, Tie-jun, 2011. "Econometric Study of Relationship between Change of Farmland Quantity and Policy of Farmland Protection in China," Asian Agricultural Research, USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation, vol. 3(03), March.
  13. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2012. "Mutual Responsiveness of Biofuels, Fuels and Food Prices," CAMA Working Papers 2012-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  15. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
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