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Equilibrium real exchange rates, misalignment and competitiveness in the Southern Cone

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  • Montiel, Peter J.

Abstract

To examine the evolution of competitiveness in the production of traded goods in a particular country, it is necessary not just to disentangle actual from sustained equilibrium real exchange rate (SERER); movements, but also to determine the extent to which movements in SERERs have been driven by changes in sectoral productivity performance or by other factors. This paper presents an analysis of the evolution of the competitiveness in the traded goods sectors in six Latin American countries that takes into account both of these issues. It finds that the competitiveness of the nontraditional traded goods sector has evolved in different ways among these countries during recent years. Since the mid-1990s, it has stabilized in Argentina while improving in Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Results for Brazil are ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Montiel, Peter J., 2007. "Equilibrium real exchange rates, misalignment and competitiveness in the Southern Cone," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 62, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col037:5430
    Note: Includes bibliography
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    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/5430
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Daniel, Betty C., 1998. "Long-run equilibrium real exchange rates and oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 231-238, February.
    2. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December.
    4. de Mello, L. Jr. & Carneiro, F. G., 1997. "The long-run behavior of exchange rates in Brazil, Chile and Argentina: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 37-48.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February.
    6. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    8. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 6017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Martine Guerguil & Martin D Kaufman, 1998. "Competitiveness and the Evolution of the Real Exchange Rate in Chile," IMF Working Papers 98/58, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jaewoo Lee & Hamid Faruqee & Tamim Bayoumi, 2005. "A Fair Exchange? Theory and Practice of Calculating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 05/229, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Schröder, Marcel, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 140-151.
    2. Schröder, Marcel, 2017. "Mercantilism and China's hunger for international reserves," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 15-33.
    3. repec:bla:asiaps:v:5:y:2018:i:1:p:65-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marcel Schroder, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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