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Verba volant, transcripta manent: what corporate earnings calls reveal about the AI stock rally

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  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele
  • Manu, Ana-Simona
  • Lopardo, Gianluigi

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic impact of technological innovation, focusing on generative AI (GenAI) following ChatGPT’s release in November 2022. We propose a novel framework leveraging large language models to analyze earnings call transcripts. Our method quantifies firms’ GenAI exposure and classifies sentiment as opportunity, adoption, or risk. Using panel econometric techniques, we assess GenAI exposure’s impact on S&P 500 firms’ financial performance over 2014-2023. We find two main results. First, GenAI exposure rose sharply after ChatGPT’s release, particularly in IT, Consumer Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors, coinciding with sentiment shifts toward adoption. Second, GenAI exposure significantly influenced stock market performance. Firms with early and high GenAI exposure saw stronger returns, though earnings expectations improved modestly. Panel regressions show a 1 percentage point increase in GenAI exposure led to 0.26% rise in quarterly excess returns. Difference-in-Difference estimates indicate 2.4% average quarterly stock price increases following ChatGPT’s release. JEL Classification: C80, G14, G30, L25, O33

Suggested Citation

  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Manu, Ana-Simona & Lopardo, Gianluigi, 2025. "Verba volant, transcripta manent: what corporate earnings calls reveal about the AI stock rally," Working Paper Series 3093, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253093
    Note: 343031
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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