IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20182186.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interest rate spreads and forward guidance

Author

Listed:
  • Bredemeier, Christian
  • Kaufmann, Christoph
  • Schabert, Andreas

Abstract

We provide evidence that liquidity premia on assets that are more relevant for private agents’ intertemporal choices than near-money assets increase in response to expansionary forward guidance announcements. We introduce a structural specification of liquidity premia based on assets’ differential pledgeability to a basic New Keynesian model to replicate this finding. This model predicts that output and inflation effects of forward guidance do not increase with the length of the guidance period and are substantially smaller than if liquidity premia were neglected. This indicates that there are no puzzling forward guidance effects when endogenous liquidity premia are taken into account. JEL Classification: E32, E42, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Bredemeier, Christian & Kaufmann, Christoph & Schabert, Andreas, 2018. "Interest rate spreads and forward guidance," Working Paper Series 2186, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182186
    Note: 2857527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2186.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    2. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2021. "Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 197-215, May.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Christina Patterson, 2023. "The Forward Guidance Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 43-79.
    4. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    5. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "The Discounted Euler Equation: A Note," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(336), pages 820-831, October.
    6. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2017. "Fiscal Multipliers and Monetary Policy: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Working Paper Series in Economics 95, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    7. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2015. "Liquidity premia and interest rate parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 178-192.
    8. Michael Kiley, 2016. "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 1-15, July.
    9. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    10. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    11. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    12. Brent Bundick & A. Lee Smith, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 946-965, December.
    13. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    14. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    15. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    16. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3887-3928, November.
    17. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    18. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "The Safety Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 223-274.
    19. Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 289-344.
    20. Simon, David P, 1990. "Expectations and the Treasury Bill-Federal Funds Rate Spread over Recent Monetary Policy Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 467-477, June.
    21. Schabert, Andreas, 2015. "Optimal central bank lending," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 485-516.
    22. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    23. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    24. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A New Keynesian Model with Wealth in the Utility Function," 2018 Meeting Papers 1276, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Stefan Nagel, 2016. "The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1927-1971.
    26. Williamson, Stephen D., 2016. "Scarce collateral, the term premium, and quantitative easing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 136-165.
    27. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.
    28. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2017. "Safe Assets, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 182-227, April.
    29. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    30. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
    31. Diba Behzad & Olivier Loisel, 2017. "Pegging the Interest Rate on Bank Reserves," Working Papers 2017-01, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    32. Morten L. Bech & Elizabeth C. Klee & Viktors Stebunovs, 2012. "Arbitrage, liquidity and exit: the repo and federal funds markets before, during, and emerging from the financial crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diba, Behzad & Loisel, Olivier, 2021. "Pegging the interest rate on bank reserves: A resolution of New Keynesian puzzles and paradoxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 230-244.
    2. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2021. "Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 197-215, May.
    3. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2021. "Why Are Fiscal Multipliers Moderate Even Under Monetary Accommodation?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 074, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Ferroni, Filippo & Fisher, Jonas D.M. & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The limits of forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 118-134.
    2. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    3. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.
    4. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    5. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
    6. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
    7. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Diba, Behzad & Loisel, Olivier, 2021. "Pegging the interest rate on bank reserves: A resolution of New Keynesian puzzles and paradoxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 230-244.
    9. Brubakk, Leif & ter Ellen, Saskia & Robstad, Ørjan & Xu, Hong, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of forward communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Müller, Tobias & Christoffel, Kai & Mazelis, Falk & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2022. "Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-01394821, HAL.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    13. Daniel J. Lewis, 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Kurt G. Lunsford, 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2899-2934, September.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2g6qj1trtu8q2r79ee4jp49krd is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2021. "Why Are Fiscal Multipliers Moderate Even Under Monetary Accommodation?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 074, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    18. Lepetit, Antoine & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2022. "The limited power of monetary policy in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    19. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2017. "Fiscal Multipliers and Monetary Policy: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Working Paper Series in Economics 95, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    20. Manthos D Delis & Sizhe Hong & Nikos Paltalidis & Dennis Philip, 2022. "Forward Guidance and Corporate Lending [Measuring euro area monetary policy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 899-935.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2g6qj1trtu8q2r79ee4jp49krd is not listed on IDEAS
    22. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward guidance; liquidity premium; unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.