Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging
The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (01382) 344375
Fax: (01382) 344691
Web page: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/econman/Email:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- C. Peter Timmer, 2009. "Did Speculation Affect World Rice Prices?," Working Papers 09-07, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
- Benninga, Simon Z. & Oosterhof, Casper M., 2004. "Hedging with forwards and puts in complete and incomplete markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-17, January.
- Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1983. "Hedger Diversity in Futures Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(37), pages 370-89, June.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Selover, David D., 1987. "Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 43-51.
- Yun, Won-Cheol & Jae Kim, Hyun, 2010. "Hedging strategy for crude oil trading and the factors influencing hedging effectiveness," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2404-2408, May.
- Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
- Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983.
"Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders,"
570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
- Dawe, D., 2002. "The changing structure of the world rice market, 1950-2000," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 355-370, August.
- Jin, Hyun Joung & Koo, Won W., 2002. "Offshore Commodity And Currency Hedging Strategy With Hedging Costs," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23592, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
- Wakita, Shigeru, 2001. "Efficiency of the Dojima rice futures market in Tokugawa-period Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 535-554, March.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rajarshi Mitra, 2008. "Exchange Rate Risk and Commodity Trade Between the U.S. and India," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 71-80, February.
- Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010.
"Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194, August.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers 540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers UWEC-2008-11-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2009.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 10-07, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," NBER Working Papers 13901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adolfo Sachsida & Roberto Ellery & Joanilio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2001. "Uncovered interest parity and the peso problem: the Brazilian case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 179-181.
- Ping Wang, 2000. "Testing PPP for Asian economies during the recent floating period," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 545-548.
- Branson, William H, 1969. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(6), pages 1028-35, Nov./Dec..
- Kawai, Masahiro & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1986. "International trade with forward-futures markets under exchange rate and price uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 83-98, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andrzej Kwiatkowski)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.