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Dynamic relationship between global economic policy uncertainty, food prices and maritime transport: Evidence from the TVP-VAR-SV model

Author

Listed:
  • Wenjing Zhang
  • Ling Sun
  • Phu Nguyen-Van

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic interactions among global economic policy uncertainty, food prices, and maritime freight rates, focusing on changes in the global food landscape since China’s WTO official accession. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV), it analyzes the impacts of economic policy changes, environmental policy, geopolitical risks, and global public health events on food and transportation markets. Additionally, it explores how fluctuations in maritime freight rates may affect food prices and, consequently, global economic development. Finally, the paper offers recommendations for food import and export countries to enhance food security and promote sustainable development in food transport firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenjing Zhang & Ling Sun & Phu Nguyen-Van, 2025. "Dynamic relationship between global economic policy uncertainty, food prices and maritime transport: Evidence from the TVP-VAR-SV model," EconomiX Working Papers 2025-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-28
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    File URL: https://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2025/WP_EcoX_2025-28.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global economic policy uncertainty; food market; food maritime transport; TVP-VAR-SV; food security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation

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