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Agriculture in a Global Perspective

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  • Jonathan M. Harris

Abstract

In the twenty-first century, it is evident that world agricultural systems will have to supply sufficient food for a population somewhere between 7.5 and 12 billion. Projections for world agriculture in the first half of the twenty-first century very widely, largely depending on assumptions about yield growth. An investigation of the patterns of yield growth for major cereal crops offers evidence that the pattern is logistic, implying that an upper limit to yields is being approached. This pattern is consistent with ecological limits on soil fertility, water availability, and nutrient uptake. It is also evident that current agricultural production is imposing serious strains on ecosystems, with widespread soil degradation, water overdraft and pollution, and ecological impacts such as loss of biodiversity and the proliferation of resistant pest species. The issue therefore is not simply the balance of supply and demand in agriculture. It is the need to develop ecologically sustainable agricultural systems which can provide an agricultural output about twice present aggregate levels (allowing for per capita growth in consumption). This level of output would support a population of about 8 billion. In addition, a population policy which can avert any much higher growth is essential. Evidence exists to show that ecologically sustainable cropping systems can supply overall outputs comparable to intensive high-input agriculture. (The measure of overall output is distinct from the more commonly used measure of single-crop yields.) This evidence, however, is more compelling for temperate zones with good soils. Much more research is needed on sustainable agriculture for tropical and arid zones. Agricultural policies need to be reformulated to meet the new goal of sustainability. These sustainable agriculture policies must be developed in tandem with population policies to ensure that population growth remains in the lower ranges of current projections.
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  • Jonathan M. Harris, "undated". "Agriculture in a Global Perspective," GDAE Working Papers 01-04, GDAE, Tufts University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dae:daepap:01-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Robert S. & Kates, Robert W., 1994. "World food security: prospects and trends," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 192-208, April.
    2. Norse, David, 1994. "Multiple threats to regional food production: environment, economy, population?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 133-148, April.
    3. Cassman, K. G. & Harwood, R. R., 1995. "The nature of agricultural systems: food security and environmental balance," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 439-454, October.
    4. Crosson, Pierre & Anderson, Jock R., 1994. "Demand and supply: trends in global agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 105-119, April.
    5. Harris, Jonathan M., 1996. "World agricultural futures: regional sustainability and ecological limits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 95-115, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy A. Wise, "undated". "Understanding the Farm Problem: Six Common Errors in Presenting Farm Statistics," GDAE Working Papers 05-02, GDAE, Tufts University.
    2. Carleton Schade & David Pimentel, 2010. "Population crash: prospects for famine in the twenty-first century," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 245-262, April.
    3. Aguayo, Francisco & Gallagher, Kevin P., 2005. "Economic reform, energy, and development: the case of Mexican manufacturing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 829-837, May.
    4. Julie A. Nelson, "undated". "Is Economics a Natural Science?," GDAE Working Papers 04-03, GDAE, Tufts University.
    5. Neva R. Goodwin, "undated". "Macroeconomics for the Twenty-First Century," GDAE Working Papers 03-02, GDAE, Tufts University.
    6. Julie A. Nelson, "undated". "Clocks, Creation, and Clarity: Insights on Ethics and Economics from a Feminist Perspective," GDAE Working Papers 03-11, GDAE, Tufts University.
    7. Julie A. Nelson, "undated". "Beyond Small-Is-Beautiful: A Buddhist and Feminist Analysis of Ethics and Business," GDAE Working Papers 04-01, GDAE, Tufts University.

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