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The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence

This paper reports an empirical application of new Baynesian methodology to Australian data on consumption, income, liquid assets and inflation. The methods involve the use of objective model based reference priors and objective posterior odds test criteria. The paper provides an overview of this methodology, which is based on recent work by the author (1991) and joint work with Werner Ploberger (1991) and Eric Zivot (1991). The empirical application involves tests of nonstationarity and cointegration in the data and various long-run model specifications are studied in detail. Bayesian empirical results are presented alongside well-known classical tests and are shown to provide especially useful evidence in cases where the classical test results are mixed. Our empirical results show that real private consumption expenditure and household disposal income are not cointegrated either in real or nominal terms. Instead we find strong empirical support for the inclusion of an inflation or relative capital loss measure in the Australian consumption function. Suitable measures of these variables are constructed and a final specification is recommended which yields a long-run cointegrating relation that is empirically compatible in real and nominal terms.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d10a/d1000.pdf
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1000.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Colin Hargreaves, eds., Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run, 1992, pp. 287-322
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1000
Note: CFP 825.
Contact details of provider: Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

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Order Information: Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1991. "Time Series Modelling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: 1. Concepts and Illustrations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 980, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
  4. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. Marc Nerlove, . "Unit Roots in Economic Time Series: An Introduction," Discussion Paper Serie A 268, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Dec 1989.
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec..
  8. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521385824 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  12. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: De Rebus Prioribus Semper Est Disputandum," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 435-73, Oct.-Dec..
  13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Unit Roots," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 998, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
  16. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  17. Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
  18. DeJong, David N & Whiteman, Charles H, 1991. "The Temporal Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Likelihood Function," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 600-617, June.
  19. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  20. Phillips, Peter C B & Loretan, Mico, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 407-36, May.
  21. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Spurious Effect of Unit Roots on Exogeneity Tests in Vector Autoregressions: An Analytical Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 978, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  22. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  23. Leamer, Edward E, 1988. "Things That Bother Me," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 331-35, December.
  24. Geweke, John, 1988. "Comment on Poirer: Operational Bayesian Methods in Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 159-66, Winter.
  25. Poirier, Dale J, 1988. "Frequentist and Subjectivist Perspectives on the Problems of Model Building in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 121-44, Winter.
  26. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 872, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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