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The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence

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Abstract

This paper reports an empirical application of new Baynesian methodology to Australian data on consumption, income, liquid assets and inflation. The methods involve the use of objective model based reference priors and objective posterior odds test criteria. The paper provides an overview of this methodology, which is based on recent work by the author (1991) and joint work with Werner Ploberger (1991) and Eric Zivot (1991). The empirical application involves tests of nonstationarity and cointegration in the data and various long-run model specifications are studied in detail. Bayesian empirical results are presented alongside well-known classical tests and are shown to provide especially useful evidence in cases where the classical test results are mixed. Our empirical results show that real private consumption expenditure and household disposal income are not cointegrated either in real or nominal terms. Instead we find strong empirical support for the inclusion of an inflation or relative capital loss measure in the Australian consumption function. Suitable measures of these variables are constructed and a final specification is recommended which yields a long-run cointegrating relation that is empirically compatible in real and nominal terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1000, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1000
    Note: CFP 825.
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d10/d1000.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1991. "Time Series Modelling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: 1. Concepts and Illustrations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 980, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    8. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: De Rebus Prioribus Semper Est Disputandum," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 435-473, Oct.-Dec..
    10. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-364, Oct.-Dec..
    13. Geweke, John, 1988. "Comment on Poirer: Operational Bayesian Methods in Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 159-166, Winter.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    16. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    17. DeJong, David N & Whiteman, Charles H, 1991. "The Temporal Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Likelihood Function," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 600-617, June.
    18. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Spurious Effect of Unit Roots on Exogeneity Tests in Vector Autoregressions: An Analytical Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 978, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    19. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    20. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Unit Roots," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 998, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    21. Poirier, Dale J, 1988. "Frequentist and Subjectivist Perspectives on the Problems of Model Building in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 121-144, Winter.
    22. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 872, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    23. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    24. Leamer, Edward E, 1988. "Things That Bother Me," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 331-335, December.
    25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Unit Roots," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 998, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayes model; cointegration; consumption function; steady state; unit root; Bayesian analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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