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Forecasting accuracy of behavioural models for participation in the arts

  • Victoria M. Ateca-Amestoy


    (Department of Economic Analysis II, Universidad del País Vasco / Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea.)

  • Juan Prieto-Rodriguez


    (Departament of Economics, University of Oviedo)

In this paper, we assess the forecasting performance of count data models applied to arts attendance. We estimate participation models for two artistic activities that differ in their degree of popularity -museum and jazz concerts- with data derived from the 2002 release of the Survey of Public Participation in the Arts for the United States. We estimate a finite mixture model - a zero-inflated negative binomial model - that allows us to distinguish "true" non-attendants and "goers" and their respective behaviour regarding participation in the arts. We evaluate the predictive (in-sample) and forecasting (out-of-sample) accuracy of the estimated models using bootstrapping techniques to compute the Brier score. Overall, the results indicate good properties of the model in terms of forecasting. Finally, we derive some policy implications from the forecasting capacity of the models, which allows for identification of target populations.

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Paper provided by Association for Cultural Economics International in its series ACEI Working Paper Series with number AWP-01-2012.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision: Feb 2012
Handle: RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-01-2012
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  1. Victoria Ateca-Amestoy, 2008. "Determining heterogeneous behavior for theater attendance," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 127-151, June.
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  15. VÍctor Blanco & JosÉ BaÑos Pino, 1997. "Cinema Demand in Spain: A Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 57-75, March.
  16. Charles B. Weinberg & Kenneth M. Shachmut, 1978. "ARTS PLAN: A Model Based System for Use in Planning a Performing Arts Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(6), pages 654-664, February.
  17. Fernandez-Blanco, Victor & Orea, Luis & Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan, 2009. "Analyzing consumers heterogeneity and self-reported tastes: An approach consistent with the consumer's decision making process," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 622-633, August.
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