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Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities

  • R. Winkler
  • Javier Muñoz
  • José Cervera
  • José Bernardo
  • Gail Blattenberger
  • Joseph Kadane
  • Dennis Lindley
  • Allan Murphy
  • Robert Oliver
  • David Ríos-Insua
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    No abstract is available for this item.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02562681
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    Article provided by Springer in its journal Test.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 1 (June)
    Pages: 1-60

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:5:y:1996:i:1:p:1-60
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=120411

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    1. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
    2. Rubin Herman, 1987. "A Weak System Of Axioms For "Rational" Behavior And The Nonseparability Of Utility From Prior," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1-2), pages 47-58, February.
    3. Emir Shuford & Arthur Albert & H. Edward Massengill, 1966. "Admissible probability measurement procedures," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 125-145, June.
    4. Blattenberger, Gail & Lad, Frank, 1988. "An Application of Operational-Subjective Statistical Methods to Rational Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(4), pages 453-64, October.
    5. Blattenberger, Gail, 1996. "Money Demand Revisited: An Operational Subjective Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 153-68, March-Apr.
    6. Robert L. Winkler & Roy M. Poses, 1993. "Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(12), pages 1526-1543, December.
    7. Joseph Kadane & Javier Girón & Daniel Peña & Peter Fishburn & Simon French & D. Lindley & Giovanni Parmigiani & Robert Winkler, 1993. "Several Bayesians: A review," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, December.
    8. Yates, J. Frank, 1988. "Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 281-299, June.
    9. A. Dawid & M. DeGroot & J. Mortera & R. Cooke & S. French & C. Genest & M. Schervish & D. Lindley & K. McConway & R. Winkler, 1995. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 263-313, December.
    10. Harsanyi, John C., 1994. "Games with Incomplete Information," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1994-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    11. Robert L. Winkler & Wayne S. Smith & Ram B. Kulkarni, 1978. "Adaptive Forecasting Models Based on Predictive Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(10), pages 977-986, June.
    12. Murphy, Allan H. & Winkler, Robert L., 1992. "Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 435-455, March.
    13. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
    14. James Berger & Elías Moreno & Luis Pericchi & M. Bayarri & José Bernardo & Juan Cano & Julián Horra & Jacinto Martín & David Ríos-Insúa & Bruno Betrò & A. Dasgupta & Paul Gustafson & Larry Wasserman &, 1994. "An overview of robust Bayesian analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-124, June.
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