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Coherent combination of experts' opinions

Author

Listed:
  • A. Dawid
  • M. DeGroot
  • J. Mortera
  • R. Cooke
  • S. French
  • C. Genest
  • M. Schervish
  • D. Lindley
  • K. McConway
  • R. Winkler

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Dawid & M. DeGroot & J. Mortera & R. Cooke & S. French & C. Genest & M. Schervish & D. Lindley & K. McConway & R. Winkler, 1995. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 4(2), pages 263-313, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:4:y:1995:i:2:p:263-313
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02562628
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dennis V. Lindley, 1986. "Another Look at an Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 303-306, March.
    2. Kelly, Jerry S., 1978. "Arrow Impossibility Theorems," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780124033504 edited by Shell, Karl.
    3. Murphy, Allan H. & Winkler, Robert L., 1992. "Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 435-455, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Mortera & A. Philip Dawid, 2017. "A Note on Prediction Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0215, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. A. Philip Dawid & Julia Mortera, 2020. "Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 453-456, April.
    3. Marco Scarsini & Yossi Feinberg, 2003. "Rate of Arbitrage and Reconciled Beliefs," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(11), pages 1-12.
    4. R. Winkler & Javier Muñoz & José Cervera & José Bernardo & Gail Blattenberger & Joseph Kadane & Dennis Lindley & Allan Murphy & Robert Oliver & David Ríos-Insua, 1996. "Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 5(1), pages 1-60, June.
    5. Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2020. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1092-1110, July.
    6. Satopää, Ville A., 2021. "Improving the wisdom of crowds with analysis of variance of predictions of related outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1728-1747.
    7. Richard Bradley, 2018. "Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(1), pages 5-20, July.
    8. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jr. & Robert L. Winkler, 2007. "Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(11), pages 1745-1755, November.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2003:i:11:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Taylor, James W. & Taylor, Kathryn S., 2023. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 25-41.
    12. Roberto Casarin & Giulia Mantoan & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Bayesian Calibration of Generalized Pools of Predictive Distributions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Stanisław Cichomski & Adam Osȩkowski, 2025. "On the Existence of Extreme Coherent Distributions with No Atoms," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-15, March.
    14. McAlinn, Kenichiro & West, Mike, 2019. "Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis in time series forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 155-169.
    15. Itai Arieli & Yakov Babichenko & Fedor Sandomirskiy, 2023. "Feasible Conditional Belief Distributions," Papers 2307.07672, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    16. Donnacha Bolger & Brett Houlding, 2016. "Reliability updating in linear opinion pooling for multiple decision makers," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(3), pages 309-322, June.
    17. Kevin He & Fedor Sandomirskiy & Omer Tamuz, 2021. "Private Private Information," Papers 2112.14356, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    18. Ville A. Satopää & Robin Pemantle & Lyle H. Ungar, 2016. "Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1623-1633, October.
    19. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    20. Victor Richmond R. Jose & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, 2014. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 463-475, February.
    21. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    22. Arieli, Itai & Babichenko, Yakov, 2024. "A population's feasible posterior beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    23. Bolger, Donnacha & Houlding, Brett, 2017. "Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 41-49.
    24. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

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