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Asymmetric Increasing Trends in Dependence in International Equity Markets

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  • Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

Abstract

This paper investigates asymmetric increasing trends in dependence in major international equity markets. To this end, we develop a multiple-regime smooth-transition copula GARCH model and address several important questions, including the number of regimes and the existence of increasing asymmetric trends in dependence. Our results suggest that two or three regimes are sufficient for describing the dependence trends in international equity markets over the last 35 years with significant asymmetric increases. In addition, the implied time-series of three dependence measures show a wide variety of dynamics, demonstrating the usefulness of our framework to describe asymmetric increasing dependence trends. Finally, we evaluate the economic significance of our empirical finding based on the 99% value at risk and expected shortfall. Our result indicates that both risk measures have increased approximately 20% over the last 35 years in major equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2014. "Asymmetric Increasing Trends in Dependence in International Equity Markets," AJRC Working Papers 1405, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcwp:1405
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    2. Komatsubara, Tadaaki & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tatsumi, Ken-ichi, 2017. "Dynamics of integration in East Asian equity markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 37-50.
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    5. Hossein Rad & Rand Kwong Yew Low & Robert Faff, 2016. "The profitability of pairs trading strategies: distance, cointegration and copula methods," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1541-1558, October.
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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