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Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair

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  • Goriaev, Alexei P.
  • Sonin, Konstantin

Abstract

The Yukos affair, a high-profile story of the state-led assault on a private Russian company, provides an excellent opportunity for an inquiry into the nature of company-specific political risks in emerging markets. News associated primarily with law enforcement agencies’ actions against company’s managers, not formally related to the company itself, caused significant negative abnormal returns for Yukos. The results are robust and not driven by a few major events, such as the arrests of Yukos’ top managers and shareholders. Stocks of less transparent private Russian companies have been more sensitive to Yukos-related events, especially employee-related charges by the law enforcement agencies. The situation was different for less transparent government-owned companies such as the world-largest natural gas producer Gazprom: they appear to be significantly less sensitive to these events. Actions of regulatory agencies have had predominantly industry-wide impact, whereas law-enforcement agencies’ actions affected shares of large private companies, especially those were privatized in the notorious loans-for-shares privatization auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Goriaev, Alexei P. & Sonin, Konstantin, 2005. "Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair," CEPR Discussion Papers 5076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav & Kuznetsov, Andrei & Demina, Natalia & Kuznetsova, Olga, 2013. "Threats to security of property rights in a transition economy: An empirical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 245-264.
    2. Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009. "Dictators and oligarchs: A dynamic theory of contested property rights," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Durnev, Art & Fauver, Larry, 2008. "Stealing from Thieves: Firm Governance and Performance when States are Predatory," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-12, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Alexeev, Michael & Weber, Shlomo (ed.), 2013. "The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199759927.
    5. Al Khattab, Adel & Anchor, John R. & Davies, Eleanor M.M., 2008. "The institutionalisation of political risk assessment (IPRA) in Jordanian international firms," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 688-702, December.
    6. Art Durnev & Sergei Guriev, 2011. "Resource Curse: A Corporate Transparency Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5um2bhne3f8, Sciences Po.
    7. Alexander Libman, 2006. "Government-Business Relations and Catching Up Reforms in the CIS," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 3(2), pages 263-288, December.
    8. Goriaev, Alexei & Zabotkin, Alexei, 2006. "Risks of investing in the Russian stock market: Lessons of the first decade," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 380-397, December.
    9. repec:eee:ememar:v:34:y:2018:i:c:p:143-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Población, Javier & Correia, Ricardo & Restrepo, Diana, 2012. "Political risk and corporate investment decisions," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 13114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    11. Timothy Frye & Andrei Yakovlev, 2015. "Elections and Property Rights: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 29/PS/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    12. Art Durnev & Vihang Errunza & Alexander Molchanov, 2009. "Property rights protection, corporate transparency, and growth," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 40(9), pages 1533-1562, December.
    13. repec:kap:annfin:v:14:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-017-0314-z is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Olga Lazareva & Andrei Rachinsky & Sergey Stepanov, 2007. "A Survey of Corporate Governance in Russia," Working Papers w0103, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    15. Zadorozhna Olha & Zaderey Natalia, 2013. "Impact of Political Regime Shift on Stock Returns of Oligarch Firms," EERC Working Paper Series 13/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    16. Benjamin Maury & Eva Liljeblom, 2009. "Oligarchs, political regime changes, and firm valuation," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(3), pages 411-438, July.
    17. R. Sverchkov & K. Sonin., 2014. "Financial Markets Efficiency (Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics 2013)," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.

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    Keywords

    company specific political risk; event study; oil; privatization; Russian stock market;

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