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Investment, Reprocurement and Franchise Contract Length in the British Railway Industry

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Listed author(s):
  • Affuso, Luisa
  • Newbery, David M G

Abstract

This Paper studies the interaction between repeated auctions of rail franchises of different lengths, uncertainty, and incentives for investment in rolling stock, following the privatization of British Rail. Theoretical predictions are tested empirically using a unique panel of data. Theory suggests that short franchise lengths reduce incentives to invest in specific assets. Our empirical results suggest that competition and strategic behaviour at the re-procurement stage can create incentives for delayed investment. Investing just before the end of the franchise enhances the incumbent’s probability of having the contract re-awarded and provides it with a first-mover advantage, while raising the entry cost for other potential bidders.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2619.

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Date of creation: Nov 2000
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2619
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Keywords: Contracts; Investment; Panel Data; Railways;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
  • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights
  • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
  2. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
  3. Perry, Martin K., 1989. "Vertical integration: Determinants and effects," Handbook of Industrial Organization,in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 183-255 Elsevier.
  4. Pittman, Russell W, 1990. "Railroads and Competition: The Santa Fe/Southern Pacific Merger Proposal," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 25-46, September.
  5. Klein, Benjamin & Crawford, Robert G & Alchian, Armen A, 1978. "Vertical Integration, Appropriable Rents, and the Competitive Contracting Process," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 297-326, October.
  6. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
  7. Louis S. Thompson & Karim-Jacques Budin, 1997. "Global Trend to Railway Concessions Delivering Positive Results," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11563, The World Bank.
  8. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
  9. Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data Badi H. Baltagi Wiley, 1995," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 747-754, October.
  10. Pittman, Russell, 1992. "Specific Investments, Contracts, and Opportunism: The Evolution of Railroad Sidetrack Agreements," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 565-589, October.
  11. Mark Armstrong & Simon Cowan & John Vickers, 1994. "Regulatory Reform: Economic Analysis and British Experience," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510790, July.
  12. Grimm, Curtis M & Winston, Clifford & Evans, Carol A, 1992. "Foreclosure of Railroad Markets: A Test of Chicago Leverage Theory," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(2), pages 295-310, October.
  13. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, "undated". "An Exact Solution for the Investment and Market Value of a Firm Facing Uncertainty, Adjustment Costs, and Irreversibility," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 12-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  14. Edlin, Aaron S & Reichelstein, Stefan, 1996. "Holdups, Standard Breach Remedies, and Optimal Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 478-501, June.
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Cited by:

  1. Newbery, David M., 2003. "Network capacity auctions: promise and problems," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 27-32, March.
  2. Elisabetta Iossa & Patrick Rey, 2014. "Building Reputation For Contract Renewal: Implications For Performance Dynamics And Contract Duration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 549-574, 06.
  3. Rico Merkert, 2005. "Die Reorganisation und Zukunft des Eisenbahnwesens in Großbritanien," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 78, Universität Potsdam, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  4. Rob Aalbers & Victoria Shestalova & Sander Onderstal, 2004. "Better safe than sorry? Reliability policy in network industries," CPB Document 73, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  5. Ivaldi, Marc & Seabright, Paul, 2003. "The Economics of Passenger Rail Transport: A Survey," IDEI Working Papers 163, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.

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