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The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia

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  • Rossi, Pauline
  • Godard, Mathilde

Abstract

The old-age security motive for fertility postulates that people’s needs for old-age support raise the demand for children. We test this widespread idea using the extension of social pensions in Namibia during the nineties. The reform eliminated inequalities in pension coverage and benefit across regions and ethnic groups. Combining differences in pre-reform pensions and differences in exposure across cohorts, we show that pensions substantially reduce fertility, especially in late reproductive life. This article provides the first quasi-experimental quantification of the old-age security motive. The results suggest that improving social protection for the elderly could go a long way in fostering fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi, Pauline & Godard, Mathilde, 2020. "The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2002, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:docweb:2002
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    2. Sylvain Dessy & Francesca Marchetta & Roland Pongou & Luca Tiberti, 2024. "Women’s Relative Earning Power and Fertility: Evidence from Climate Shocks in Rural Madagascar," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_14.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
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    4. Canning, David & Mabeu, Marie Christelle & Pongou, Roland, 2020. "Colonial origins and fertility: can the market overcome history?," MPRA Paper 112496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Madeline E. Duhon & Edward Miguel & Amos Njuguna & Daniela Pinto Veizaga & Michael W. Walker, 2023. "Preparing for an Aging Africa: Data-Driven Priorities for Economic Research and Policy," NBER Working Papers 31750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Old-age pensions; Social security; Africa; Difference-in-differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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