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The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia

Author

Listed:
  • Pauline Rossi

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Mathilde Godard

    (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The old-age security motive for fertility postulates that people's needs for old-age support raise the demand for children. We exploit the extension of social pensions in Namibia during the 1990s to provide a quasi-experimental quantification of this widespread idea. The reform eliminated inequalities in pension coverage and benefits across regions and ethnic groups. Combining differences in pre-reform pensions and differences in exposure across cohorts, we show that pensions substantially reduce fertility, especially in late reproductive life. The results suggest that improving social protection for the elderly could go a long way in fostering fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. (JEL H55, I38, J13, J14, O15)

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Rossi & Mathilde Godard, 2022. "The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia," Post-Print hal-03922295, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03922295
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200466
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03922295v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Céline Zipfel, 2022. "The demand side of Africa's demographic transition: desired fertility, wealth, and jobs," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 71, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    2. De Santis Gustavo, 2024. "Demography, Economy and Policy Choices: The Three Corners of the Pension Conundrum," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 169-200.
    3. Sylvain Dessy & Francesca Marchetta & Roland Pongou & Luca Tiberti, 2024. "Women’s Relative Earning Power and Fertility: Evidence from Climate Shocks in Rural Madagascar," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_14.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    4. Manasvi Sharma, 2024. "Ethnic fertility and exposure to armed conflict: the case of Sri Lanka," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1317-1351, December.
    5. Filip Chybalski & Edyta Marcinkiewicz, 2024. "Grandparents “on board”: How they translate into the households’ fertility decisions," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 51(2), pages 233-250, June.
    6. Rao, Ziwei & Zhang, Yi, 2024. "Rely on children or work longer? The impact of fertility and child gender on old-age labor supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    7. Gobbi, Paula & Hannusch, Anne & Rossi, Pauline, 2025. "Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 18262, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Mathilde Sage, 2025. "Children are a Poor Women’s Wealth: How Inheritance Rights Affect Fertility," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2025004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    9. Marazyan, Karine, 2025. "The effects of rainfall shocks on divorce requests: Evidence from Colonial Senegal," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 317-344.
    10. Paula E. Gobbi & Anne Hannusch & Pauline Rossi, 2026. "Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_726, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    11. Victor Gay & Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2023. "Revolutionary Transition: Inheritance Changeand Fertility Decline," Working Papers ECARES 2023-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Canning, David & Mabeu, Marie Christelle & Pongou, Roland, 2020. "Colonial origins and fertility: can the market overcome history?," MPRA Paper 112496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Madeline E. Duhon & Edward Miguel & Amos Njuguna & Daniela Pinto Veizaga & Michael W. Walker, 2023. "Preparing for an Aging Africa: Data-Driven Priorities for Economic Research and Policy," NBER Working Papers 31750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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