IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000124/021023.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Automation of the labor force and informality with focus on the Colombian case

Author

Listed:
  • Fernández, Cristina

    (FEDESARROLLO)

  • Suecún, Cecilia

    (FEDESARROLLO)

Abstract

This study explores the potential impact of automation on jobs in Colombia, with a specific focus on the informal economy. To do this, we apply Frey and Osborne (2017) and IADB (2019) automation probabilities and Mihaylov and Tijdens (2019) routine task intensities to the Colombian context. We estimate that machines could replace around 57% of Colombian jobs within the next 10 to 20 years. We find that the percentage of high-risk occupations for informal workers is slightly higher than for formal workers, but the risk is slightly lower for workers in informal firms compared to those in formal firms. The results also highlight divergent findings depending on the methodology used, with some indicating that informal workers hold more automatable jobs, while others suggest the opposite. Younger workers and women are identified as groups facing a higher risk of automation, emphasizing the need for targeted attention to these demographics in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández, Cristina & Suecún, Cecilia, 2023. "Automation of the labor force and informality with focus on the Colombian case," Informes de Investigación 21023, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000124:021023
    Note: Financiador Project Untangled, European Union
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/4497
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Informality and Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 109-126, Summer.
    2. Costas Meghir & Renata Narita & Jean-Marc Robin, 2015. "Wages and Informality in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1509-1546, April.
    3. David H. Autor, 2019. "Work of the Past, Work of the Future," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 1-32, May.
    4. Diego A. Martin, 2018. "U-shaped wage curve and the Internet: The Colombian case," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 173-202, December.
    5. Emil Mihaylov & Kea Tijdens, 2019. "Measuring the Routine and Non-Routine Task Content of 427 Four-Digit ISCO-08 Occupations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-035/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Antonczyk Dirk & Fitzenberger Bernd & Leuschner Ute, 2009. "Can a Task-Based Approach Explain the Recent Changes in the German Wage Structure?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 214-238, April.
    7. Falco, Paolo & Maloney, William F. & Rijkers, Bob & Sarrias, Mauricio, 2015. "Heterogeneity in subjective wellbeing: An application to occupational allocation in Africa," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 137-153.
    8. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    9. David H. Autor, 2001. "Why Do Temporary Help Firms Provide Free General Skills Training?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1409-1448.
    10. Albinowski, Maciej & Lewandowski, Piotr, 2024. "The impact of ICT and robots on labour market outcomes of demographic groups in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    12. Gabriel Ulyssea, 2020. "Informality: Causes and Consequences for Development," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 525-546, August.
    13. Álvarez, Fernando & Brassiolo a, Pablo & Toledo, Manuel & Allub, Lian & Alves, Guillermo & de la Mata, Dolores & Estrada, Ricardo & Daude, Christian, . "Pension and healthcare systems in Latin America: Challenges posed by aging, technological change, and informality," Report on Economic Development, CAF Development Bank Of Latinamerica, number 1730, March.
    14. Adriana D. Kugler & Maurice Kugler & Laura Ripani & Rodimiro Rodrigo, 2020. "U.S. Robots and their Impacts in the Tropics: Evidence from Colombian Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 28034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Gabriel Ulyssea, 2018. "Firms, Informality, and Development: Theory and Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2015-2047, August.
    16. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    17. Das, Mitali & Hilgenstock, Benjamin, 2022. "The exposure to routinization: Labor market implications for developed and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 99-113.
    18. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    19. Fernández, C, 2022. "Firms, Informality and Institutions. The case of Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 020599, Universidad del Rosario.
    20. Cristina Fernández & Leonardo Villar & Nicolás Gómez, 2017. "Taxonomía de la informalidad en América Latina," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 47(1 y 2), pages 137-167, December.
    21. Gomez, M, 2021. "Job Polarization and the Informal Labor Market," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 19418, Alianza EFI.
    22. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    23. Carlos Medina & Christian Manuel Posso Suárez, 2010. "Technical Change and Polarization of the Labor Market: Evidence for Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Borradores de Economia 7269, Banco de la Republica.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4ra95789n9nrr59b6lmini6tp is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Chacaltana Janampa, Juan. & Leung, Vicky. & Lee, Miso., 2018. "New technologies and the transition to formality the trend towards e–formality," ILO Working Papers 994998792502676, International Labour Organization.
    26. Norman V. Loayza, 2016. "Informality in the Process of Development and Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(12), pages 1856-1916, December.
    27. Mr. Antonio David & Samuel Pienknagura & Mr. Jorge Roldos, 2020. "Labor Market Dynamics, Informality and Regulations in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2020/019, International Monetary Fund.
    28. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4ra95789n9nrr59b6lmini6tp is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Fernández, C, 2022. "Firms, Informality and Institutions. The case of Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 20598, Universidad del Rosario.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    2. Brambilla, Irene & César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2023. "The impact of robots in Latin America: Evidence from local labor markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. David Kunst, 2019. "Deskilling among Manufacturing Production Workers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-050/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Dec 2020.
    4. Michael J. Böhm & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Felix Schran, 2024. "Occupation Growth, Skill Prices, and Wage Inequality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 201-243.
    5. Clément Bosquet & Paul Maarek & Elliot Moiteaux, 2021. "Routine-biased technological change and wages by education level: Occupational downgrading and displacement effects," Working Papers hal-03270715, HAL.
    6. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    7. Koster, Hans R.A. & Ozgen, Ceren, 2021. "Cities and tasks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Oussama Chemlal & Wafaa Benomar, 2024. "The Technological Impact on Employment in Spain between 2023 and 2035," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-30, April.
    9. Maarek, Paul & Moiteaux, Elliot, 2021. "Polarization, employment and the minimum wage: Evidence from European local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Alvarelhão, Ana & Resende, Joana & Carneiro, Anabela, 2024. "Employment and wage dynamics in the electricity sector: Evidence from Portugal 2002–2020," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2012. "Mechanization, task assignment, and inequality," MPRA Paper 37754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    13. Koomen, Miriam & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2022. "Occupational tasks and wage inequality in West Germany: A decomposition analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Tan, Joanne, 2024. "Multidimensional heterogeneity and matching in a frictional labor market — An application to polarization," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    16. Falck, Oliver & Heimisch-Roecker, Alexandra & Wiederhold, Simon, 2021. "Returns to ICT skills," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    17. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Azio Barani, 2021. "Innovazione tecnologica e lavoro: automazione, occupazione e impatti socio-economici," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(114), pages 51-79.
    19. Dengler, Katharina & Matthes, Britta, 2018. "The impacts of digital transformation on the labour market: Substitution potentials of occupations in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 304-316.
    20. Harrigan, James & Reshef, Ariell & Toubal, Farid, 2021. "The March of the Techies: Job Polarization Within and Between Firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automation; Technological Change; Occupational Choice Routine and non-Routine Tasks; Job Loss;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000124:021023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Patricia Monroy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedesco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.