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Legacies of the Reformation: How Religious Identity Shapes Political Preferences in Germany

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Abstract

This paper investigates whether Germany’s historical confessional divides continue to influence contemporary political behavior by exploiting persistent geographic variation between historically Catholic and Protestant areas through a Geographic Regression Discontinuity Design. Integrating historical and geospatial data with modern electoral and census sources, I find that historically Catholic municipalities show systematically higher support for the center-right Union parties than their counterparts in every federal election from 1990 to 2025, while historically Protestant areas are more likely to support parties on the center-left and left of the political spectrum. Individual-level survey data covering all Federal Elections since 1953 and the German General Social Survey provide suggestive evidence that voting behavior is shaped by confessional affiliation.

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  • Erik Ortiz-Covarrubias, 2026. "Legacies of the Reformation: How Religious Identity Shapes Political Preferences in Germany," Working Papers wp2026_2604, CEMFI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2026_2604
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    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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