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Identifying common dynamic features in stock returns

  • Jorge Caiado

    (CEMAPRE, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon)

  • Nuno Crato

    (CEMAPRE, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon)

This paper proposes volatility and spectral based methods for cluster analysis of stock returns. Using the information about both the estimated parameters in the threshold GARCH (or TGARCH) equation and the periodogram of the squared returns, we compute a distance matrix for the stock returns. Clusters are formed by looking to the hierarchical structure tree (or dendrogram) and the computed principal coordinates. We employ these techniques to investigate the similarities and dissimilarities between the "blue-chip" stocks used to compute the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index.

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File URL: http://cemapre.iseg.utl.pt/archive/preprints/383.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE), School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon in its series CEMAPRE Working Papers with number 0902.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cma:wpaper:0902
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  1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  2. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
  3. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
  4. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
  5. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
  6. Caiado, Jorge & Crato, Nuno & Pena, Daniel, 2006. "A periodogram-based metric for time series classification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2668-2684, June.
  7. Giovanni Bonanno & Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2000. "High-frequency Cross-correlation in a Set of Stocks," Papers cond-mat/0009350, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2000.
  8. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  9. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  11. G. Bonanno & G. Caldarelli & F. Lillo & S. Micciché & N. Vandewalle & R. Mantegna, 2004. "Networks of equities in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 363-371, 03.
  12. Yu, Chih-Hsien & Wu, Chunchi, 2001. "Economic sources of asymmetric cross-correlation among stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 19-40.
  13. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
  14. R. Mantegna, 1999. "Hierarchical structure in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 193-197, September.
  15. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
  16. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  17. Caiado, Jorge & Crato, Nuno & Peña, Daniel, 2009. "Comparison of time series with unequal length in the frequency domain," MPRA Paper 15310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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