IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mlb/wpaper/869.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Short Selling on the Price–Volume Relationship: Evidence from Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Olan T. Henry
  • Michael McKenzie

Abstract

This paper considers the relationship between traded volume and volatility. We employ short sales data to discriminate between transactions that close existing long positions and transactions that establish new short positions. We test for, and where appropriate, incorporate non–linearity and asymmetry into the modelling process. The evidence supports a non-linear, bi-directional relationship between volume and volatility. The results suggest (i) that the market displays greater volatility following a period of short selling and (ii) that asymmetric responses to positive and negative innovations to returns appear to be exacerbated by short selling.

Suggested Citation

  • Olan T. Henry & Michael McKenzie, 2003. "The Impact of Short Selling on the Price–Volume Relationship: Evidence from Hong Kong," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 869, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:869
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-03/869.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    5. Brockman, Paul & Chung, Dennis Y., 1998. "Inter- and intra-day liquidity patterns on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 277-298, December.
    6. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
    7. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    8. Young-Hye Cho & Robert F. Engle, 1999. "Modeling the Impacts of Market Activity on Bid-Ask Spreads in the Option Market," NBER Working Papers 7331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chris Brooks & Olan T. Henry & Gita Persand, 2002. "The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-352, April.
    10. Olan Henry, 1998. "Modelling the asymmetry of stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 145-153.
    11. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    13. Adián R. Pagan & Hernán Sabau, 1992. "Consistency tests for heteroskedastic and risk models," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(1), pages 3-30.
    14. Assogbavi, T. & Khoury, N. & Yourougou, P., 1995. "Short interest and the asymmetry of the price-volume relationship in the Canadian stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1341-1358, November.
    15. Michael J. Aitken & Alex Frino & Michael S. McCorry & Peter L. Swan, 1998. "Short Sales Are Almost Instantaneously Bad News: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2205-2223, December.
    16. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
    17. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    18. Senchack, A. J. & Starks, Laura T., 1993. "Short-Sale Restrictions and Market Reaction to Short-Interest Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 177-194, June.
    19. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
    20. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    21. Suominen, Matti, 2001. "Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 545-565, December.
    22. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    23. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    24. Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross‐Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, April.
    25. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. "Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December.
    26. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    27. Jonathan M. Karpoff, 1988. "Costly Short Sales And The Correlation Of Returns With Volume," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 173-188, September.
    28. Epps, Thomas W, 1975. "Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 586-597, September.
    29. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    30. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    31. Steven Freund & Gwendolyn P. Webb, 1999. "Recent Growth In Nasdaq Trading Volume And Its Relation To Market Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 489-501, December.
    32. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    33. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    34. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Çankaya, Serkan & Eken, Hasan/M. & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2011. "The Impact of Short Selling on Intraday Volatility: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 43658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Larry Su & Elmina Homapour & Francisco Chiclana, 2022. "Short-Sale Constraints and Stock Prices: Evidence from Implementation of Securities Refinancing Mechanism in Chinese Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Ulibarri, Carlos A., 2013. "Multivariate GARCH analysis of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and American International Group: Did the short-selling ban reduce systemic return-risk?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-69.
    4. Duong, Huu Nhan & Kalev, Petko S. & Tian, Xiao, 2023. "Short selling, divergence of opinion and volatility in the corporate bond market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Zhang, Yan & Ikeda, Shin S., 2016. "A dynamic panel analysis of HKEx shorting ban’s impact on the relationship between disagreement and future returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 10-16.
    6. Viktor Manahov & Mona Soufian & Robert Hudson, 2014. "The Implications Of Trader Cognitive Abilities On Stock Market Properties," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Kwaku Boafo Baidoo, 2019. "The Effects of Short Selling on Financial Markets Volatilities," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 218-228.
    8. Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar, 2016. "Institutional investment, equity volume and volatility spillover: Causalities and asymmetries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-20.
    9. Michael McKenzie & Olan T. Henry, 2007. "The Determinnts of Short Selling in the Hong Kong Equities Market," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1001, The University of Melbourne.
    10. Hou, Deshuai & Meng, Qingbin & Zhang, Kai & Chan, Kam C., 2019. "Motives for corporate philanthropy propensity: Does short selling matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 24-36.
    11. Maoguo Wu & Hanyang Zhang & Kwok-Leung Tam, 2017. "Did the Introduction of Securities Margin Trading Decrease China¡¯s A-Share Market Volatility?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(3), pages 135-141, July.
    12. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael D. & Yalama, Abdullah, 2013. "The cross market effects of short sale restrictions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 53-71.
    13. Lin, Yongjia & Wang, Yizhi & Fu, Xiaoqing (Maggie), 2022. "Margin purchases, short sales and stock return volatility in China: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    14. Lecce, Steven & Lepone, Andrew & McKenzie, Michael D. & Segara, Reuben, 2012. "The impact of naked short selling on the securities lending and equity market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 81-107.
    15. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Yeongsuk Cho & Youngsik Kwak, 2017. "Information Contents of Short Selling Restriction and Stock Lending and Borrowing Transactions," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 9(2), pages 27-37, October.
    17. Baklaci, Hasan F. & Suer, Omur & Yelkenci, Tezer, 2016. "A closer insight into the causality between short selling trades and volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 48-54.
    18. Tsung-Hsun Lu & Jun-De Lee, 2016. "Is Abnormally Large Volume a Clue?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(9), pages 226-233, September.
    19. Kumar, Brajesh & Singh, Priyanka & Pandey, Ajay, 2009. "The Dynamic Relationship between Price and Trading Volume:Evidence from Indian Stock Market," IIMA Working Papers WP2009-12-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    20. Frino, Alex & Lecce, Steven & Lepone, Andrew, 2011. "Short-sales constraints and market quality: Evidence from the 2008 short-sales bans," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 225-236, August.
    21. Jani Saastamoinen & Niko Suhonen, 2013. "Were the European short selling bans of 2011 effective?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1847-1851.
    22. Yeongsuk Cho & Youngsik Kwak, 2018. "A Comparative Study on the Information Effect of Stock Lending and Borrowing and Short Selling between the Korea Stock Exchange and the New Stock Exchange," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 10(1), pages 11-21, October.
    23. Brajesh Kumar, 2010. "The Dynamic Relationship between Price and Trading Volume: Evidence from Indian Stock Market," Working Papers id:2379, eSocialSciences.
    24. An, Na & Wang, Baixue & Pan, Peilin & Guo, Kun & Sun, Yi, 2018. "Study on the influence mechanism of air quality on stock market yield and Volatility: Empirical test from China based on GARCH model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 119-125.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul D. McNelis & Carrie K.C. Chan, 2004. "Deflationary Dynamics in Hong Kong: Evidence from Linear and Neural Network Regime Switching Models," Working Papers 212004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    4. Doojin RYU & Hyein SHIM, 2017. "Intraday Dynamics of Asset Returns, Trading Activities, and Implied Volatilities: A Trivariate GARCH Framework," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 45-61, June.
    5. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    7. Sarika Mahajan & Balwinder Singh, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Price-Volume Relationship in Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, July.
    8. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    9. Pramod Kumar Naik & Puja Padhi, 2015. "Stock Market Volatility and Equity Trading Volume: Empirical Examination from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC)," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(5_suppl), pages 28-45, October.
    10. Karaa, Rabaa & Slim, Skander & Hmaied, Dorra Mezzez, 2018. "Trading intensity and the volume-volatility relationship on the Tunis Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 88-99.
    11. Hisham Al Refai & Gazi Mainul Hassan, 2018. "The Impact of Market-wide Volatility on Time-varying Risk: Evidence from Qatar Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 239-258, August.
    12. Dohyun Chun & Donggyu Kim, 2022. "State Heterogeneity Analysis of Financial Volatility using high‐frequency Financial Data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 105-124, January.
    13. Henryk Gurgul & Roland Mestel & Tomasz Wojtowicz, 2007. "Distribution of volume on the American stock market," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 1, pages 143-163.
    14. de Goeij, P. C. & Marquering, W., 2004. "Modeling the conditional covariance between stock and bond returns : A multivariate GARCH approach," Other publications TiSEM 94fe5ada-715a-4339-b94c-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    16. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Mungai, Ann Nduati, 2022. "Stock returns, trading volume, and volatility: The case of African stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    18. Daniel B. Nelson, 1994. "Asymptotic Filtering Theory for Multivariate ARCH Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    20. Farag, Hisham & Cressy, Robert, 2011. "Do regulatory policies affect the flow of information in emerging markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 238-254, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:869. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dandapani Lokanathan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demelau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.