IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/212004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deflationary Dynamics in Hong Kong: Evidence from Linear and Neural Network Regime Switching Models

Author

Listed:
  • Paul D. McNelis

    (Georgetown University)

  • Carrie K.C. Chan

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper examines Deflationary dynamics in Hong Kong with a linear and a nonlinear neural-network regime-switching (NNRS) model. The NNRS model is superior to the linear model in terms of in-sample specification tests as well as out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. As befitting a small and highly open economy, the most important variables affecting inflation and deflation turn out to be the growth rates of import prices and wealth (captured by the rates of growth of residential property prices). The NNRS model indicates that the likelihood of moving out of deflation has been steadily increasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul D. McNelis & Carrie K.C. Chan, 2004. "Deflationary Dynamics in Hong Kong: Evidence from Linear and Neural Network Regime Switching Models," Working Papers 212004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:212004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/241/ub_full_0_2_95_wp200421_text.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Brockman, Paul & Chung, Dennis Y., 1998. "Inter- and intra-day liquidity patterns on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 277-298, December.
    5. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
    6. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    7. Young-Hye Cho & Robert F. Engle, 1999. "Modeling the Impacts of Market Activity on Bid-Ask Spreads in the Option Market," NBER Working Papers 7331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chris Brooks & Olan T. Henry & Gita Persand, 2002. "The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-352, April.
    9. Olan Henry, 1998. "Modelling the asymmetry of stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 145-153.
    10. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    12. Adián R. Pagan & Hernán Sabau, 1992. "Consistency tests for heteroskedastic and risk models," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(1), pages 3-30.
    13. Michael J. Aitken & Alex Frino & Michael S. McCorry & Peter L. Swan, 1998. "Short Sales Are Almost Instantaneously Bad News: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2205-2223, December.
    14. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
    15. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    16. Senchack, A. J. & Starks, Laura T., 1993. "Short-Sale Restrictions and Market Reaction to Short-Interest Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 177-194, June.
    17. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
    18. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    19. Suominen, Matti, 2001. "Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 545-565, December.
    20. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    21. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    22. Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross-Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, April.
    23. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. " Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December.
    24. Epps, Thomas W, 1975. "Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 586-597, September.
    25. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    26. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    27. Freund, Steven & Webb, Gwendolyn P, 1999. "Recent Growth in NASDAQ Trading Volume and Its Relation to Market Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 489-501, Winter.
    28. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    29. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:212004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.