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Dimension Reduction and Model Averaging for Estimation of Artists' Age-Valuation Profiles

  • John Galbraith
  • Douglas James Hodgson

In hedonic regression models of the valuation of works of art, the age at which an artist produces a particular work, or an indicator variable for periods in his or her artistic career, is often found to have highly significant predictive value. Most existing results are based on regressions that pool large groups of painters. Although it is of interest to estimate such regressions for individual artists, the sample sizes are often inadequate for a model that would also include the large number of other relevant variables. We address this problem of inadequate degrees of freedom in individual artist regressions by using two statistical methods (model averaging and dimension reduction) to incorporate information from a potentially large number of predictor variables, allowing us to work with relatively small samples. We find that individual age-valuation profiles can differ substantially from general pooled profiles, suggesting that methods that are more responsive to the unique features of individual artists may provide better predictions of art valuations at auction. In hedonic regression models of the valuation of works of art, the age at which an artist produces a particular work, or an indicator variable for periods in his or her artistic career, is often found to have highly significant predictive value. Most existing results are based on regressions that pool large groups of painters. Although it is of interest to estimate such regressions for individual artists, the sample sizes are often inadequate for a model that would also include the large number of other relevant variables. We address this problem of inadequate degrees of freedom in individual artist regressions by using two statistical methods (model averaging and dimension reduction) to incorporate information from a potentially large number of predictor variables, allowing us to work with relatively small samples. We find that individual age-valuation profiles can differ substantially from general pooled profiles, suggesting that methods that are more responsive to the unique features of individual artists may provide better predictions of art valuations at auction.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2009s-41.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2009s-41
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  1. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Heinrich Ursprung & Christian Wiermann, 2008. "Reputation, Price, and Death: An Empirical Analysis of Art Price Formation," CESifo Working Paper Series 2237, CESifo Group Munich.
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  9. David W. Galenson & Bruce A. Weinberg, 2001. "Creating Modern Art: The Changing Careers of Painters in France from Impressionism to Cubism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1063-1071, September.
  10. Hellmanzik, Christiane, 2010. "Location matters: Estimating cluster premiums for prominent modern artists," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 199-218, February.
  11. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  12. David Galenson, 2000. "The Careers of Modern Artists," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 87-112, May.
  13. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, 07.
  14. Douglas Hodgson & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 629-655, August.
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  16. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, May.
  17. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2006. "Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1133-1150, 07.
  18. John Galbraith & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2011. "Partially Dimension-Reduced Regressions with Potentially Infinite-Dimensional Processes," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-57, CIRANO.
  19. Douglas James Hodgson, 2011. "Age-Price Profiles for Canadian Painters at Auction," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-15, CIRANO.
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