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Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile: Measurement & Real Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Boragan Aruoba
  • Andrés Fernández
  • Daniel Guzmán
  • Ernesto Pastén
  • Felipe Saffie

Abstract

This paper accomplishes two goals: First, it proposes a way to compute monetary policy surprises in Chile based on a survey of financial market participants regularly conducted by Bloomberg. We argue this is the most suitable one among alternatives. Second, we use these monetary policy surprises as input in a Bayesian Vector Auto Regression analysis to estimate the effect of contractionary monetary policy. Output and inflation tend to fall while funding costs tend to increase. Expected inflation a has hump-shaped response and nominal exchange rates tend to depreciate instead of appreciating. We argue the latter two effects are consistent with an "information channel" embedded in monetary policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Boragan Aruoba & Andrés Fernández & Daniel Guzmán & Ernesto Pastén & Felipe Saffie, 2021. "Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile: Measurement & Real Effects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 921, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:921
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_921.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beltrán, Felipe & Coble, David, 2024. "Monetary policy surprises on the banking sector: The role of the information and pure monetary shocks," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(3).
    2. Acosta-Henao, Miguel & Pratap, Sangeeta & Taboada, Manuel, 2023. "Four facts about relationship lending: The case of Chile 2012-2019," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, 2025. "The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy announcements on firms' financial outcomes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), How can central banks take account of differences across households and firms for monetary policy?, volume 127, pages 295-330, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Okan Akarsu & Mehmet Selman Colak & Hatice Karahan & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Monetary Policy Announcements on Firms’ Financial Outcomes," Working Papers 2514, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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