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Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile: Measurement & Real Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Boragan Aruoba
  • Andrés Fernández
  • Daniel Guzmán
  • Ernesto Pastén
  • Felipe Saffie

Abstract

This paper accomplishes two goals: First, it proposes a way to compute monetary policy surprises in Chile based on a survey of financial market participants regularly conducted by Bloomberg. We argue this is the most suitable one among alternatives. Second, we use these monetary policy surprises as input in a Bayesian Vector Auto Regression analysis to estimate the effect of contractionary monetary policy. Output and inflation tend to fall while funding costs tend to increase. Expected inflation a has hump-shaped response and nominal exchange rates tend to depreciate instead of appreciating. We argue the latter two effects are consistent with an "information channel" embedded in monetary policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Boragan Aruoba & Andrés Fernández & Daniel Guzmán & Ernesto Pastén & Felipe Saffie, 2021. "Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile: Measurement & Real Effects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 921, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:921
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_921.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kara, A. Hakan & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    3. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    5. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2016. "The Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 137-181, April.
    6. Eric Parrado, 2001. "Effects of Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: the Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 108, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Rómulo A. Chumacero, 2005. "A Toolkit for Analyzing Alternative Policies in the Chilean Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 8, pages 261-302, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    9. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    10. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    11. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    12. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Felipe Beltrán & David Coble, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises on the Banking Sector: the Role of the Information and Pure Monetary Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 979, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Acosta-Henao, Miguel & Pratap, Sangeeta & Taboada, Manuel, 2023. "Four facts about relationship lending: The case of Chile 2012-2019," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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