Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate
This paper documents the clear change of view, which has taken place in Australia over the past three decades or so, concerning the relevance of the current account deficit for policy. Historical experience under a fixed exchange rate regime suggested that large persistent deficits were unsustainable and could leave the economy vulnerable to sudden reversals in sentiment. These concerns persisted after the floating of the Australian dollar and financial deregulation, and it was thought that all arms of policy should help to rein in the then much larger current account deficits. However, these policies were shown to be ineffective and, by the early 1990s, the argument that current account deficits represent the optimal outcomes of decisions made by ‘consenting adults’ gained wide support. This paper presents some empirical evidence consistent with optimal smoothing in the face of temporary shocks; the persistence of the deficit is attributed to a modest degree of impatience relative to the rest of the world. Although it is now widely accepted that policy should not seek to influence the current account balance, the issue of external vulnerability remains of interest. Here, country-specific considerations are important, and it is argued that the factors that have made Australia relatively resilient to external shocks are also those that helped to attract foreign capital in the first place.
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- Cashin, P., 1996.
"Are Australia's Current Account deficits Excessive?,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
533, The University of Melbourne.
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-61, December.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 1996. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 96/85, International Monetary Fund.
- J. D. Pitchford, 1989. "A Sceptical View of Australia's Current Account and Debt Problem," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(2), pages 5-14.
- Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler & Gordon Menzies, 2003.
"Australia’s Medium-run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2003-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler & Gordon Menzies, 2005. "Australia's Medium-Run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 101-112, 06.
- Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, March.
- Jocelyn Horne, 2001. "The Current Account Debate in Australia: Changing Policy Perspectives," Research Papers 0111, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
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