IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/816.html

Brexit and the Blitz: Conflict, Collective Memory and Populism

Author

Listed:
  • Melander, Eric

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

On 23 June 2016, the electorate of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Britain's relationship with the European project has a long history, and deep historical factors may have played a role in shaping the outcome of the referendum. I show that past civilian experience and collective memory of war is one such factor. Combining geo referenced data on bombing during the Second World War and district-level results of the EU Referendum, I show that districts with a greater number of bombing events exhibited higher Leave vote shares. This pattern is robust to controlling for other salient predictors of support for Leave and to using technical details of Luftwaffe technology to instrument for bombing. Collective memory is an important moderator; bombing predicts Leave vote shares only in districts where war graves and memorials from the Second World War are most prevalent. The same is not the case for war graves or memorials from other wars. Lastly, evidence from individual-level surveys suggests that Second World War-rooted Leave rhetoric was effective in swaying voters in high bombing intensity areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Melander, Eric, 2026. "Brexit and the Blitz: Conflict, Collective Memory and Populism," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 816, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:816
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp816.2026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Foos, Florian & Bischof, Daniel, 2022. "Tabloid Media Campaigns and Public Opinion: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Euroscepticism in England," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 19-37, February.
    2. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2024. "Neighborhood Effects: Evidence from Wartime Destruction in London," Working Papers 322, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    3. Fouka, Vasiliki & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2023. "Collective Remembrance and Private Choice: German–Greek Conflict and Behavior in Times of Crisis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 117(3), pages 851-870, August.
    4. Inglehart, Ronald F. & Norris, Pippa, 2016. "Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash," Working Paper Series 16-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. Juan Felipe Riaño & Felipe Valencia Caicedo, 2024. "Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(661), pages 2101-2140.
    6. Yael Elster & Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2019. "Effective Counter‐Terrorism: Rockets, Iron Dome, and the Israeli Housing Market," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 308-337, March.
    7. Bove, Vincenzo & Efthyvoulou, Georgios & Pickard, Harry, 2022. "Did Terrorism Affect Voting in the Brexit Referendum?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 1133-1150, July.
    8. Leander Heldring & James A. Robinson & Parker Whitfill, 2022. "The Second World War, Inequality and the Social Contract in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 137-159, June.
    9. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    10. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    11. Pauline Grosjean, 2014. "Conflict and Social and Political Preferences: Evidence from World War II and Civil Conflict in 35 European Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 424-451, September.
    12. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2007. "Looking for multiple equilibria when geography matters: German city growth and the WWII shock," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 152-169, January.
    13. Thiemo Fetzer & Srinjoy Sen & Pedro C L Souza, 2023. "Housing Insecurity and Homelessness: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 526-559.
    14. Liberini, Federica & Oswald, Andrew J. & Proto, Eugenio & Redoano, Michela, 2019. "Was Brexit triggered by the old and unhappy? Or by financial feelings?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 287-302.
    15. Christian Ochsner & Felix Roesel, 2024. "Activated History: The Case of the Turkish Sieges of Vienna," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 76-112, July.
    16. Elster, Yael & Zussman, Asaf & Zussman, Noam, 2017. "Rockets: The housing market effects of a credible terrorist threat," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 136-147.
    17. Fabian Waldinger, 2016. "Bombs, Brains, and Science: The Role of Human and Physical Capital for the Creation of Scientific Knowledge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 811-831, December.
    18. Fetzer, Thiemo, 2023. "Regulatory barriers to climate action : Evidence from Conservation Areas in England," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1451, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    19. Belmonte, Alessandro & Rochlitz, Michael, 2019. "The political economy of collective memories: Evidence from Russian politics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 229-250.
    20. Sinara Gharibyan, 2024. "Collective vs. Family Remembrance: Evidence From Two Russian Betrayals," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp787, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    21. repec:ces:ceswps:_10309 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    23. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence Van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2024. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 413-458, February.
    24. Alabrese, Eleonora & Becker, Sascha O. & Fetzer, Thiemo & Novy, Dennis, 2019. "Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 132-150.
    25. De Juan, Alexander & Haass, Felix & Koos, Carlo & Riaz, Sascha & Tichelbaecker, Thomas, 2024. "War and Nationalism: How WW1 Battle Deaths Fueled Civilians’ Support for the Nazi Party," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 144-162, February.
    26. Colantone, Italo & Stanig, Piero, 2018. "Global Competition and Brexit," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 201-218, May.
    27. Adena, Maja & Enikolopov, Ruben & Petrova, Maria & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2020. "Bombs, Broadcasts and Resistance: Allied Intervention and Domestic Opposition to the Nazi Regime during World War II," CEPR Discussion Papers 15292, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    28. Björn Brey & Joanne Haddad & Lamis Kattan, 2025. "Collective Memory and National Identity Formation: The Role of Family and the State," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 25112, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    29. Richard Disney & Tom Kirchmaier & Stephen Machin & Carmen Villa, 2026. "Gangs of London and public housing," CEP Discussion Papers dp2147, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    30. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    31. Miguel, Edward & Roland, Gérard, 2011. "The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-15, September.
    32. Leander Heldring & James A. Robinson & Parker J. Whitfill, 2022. "The Second World War, Inequality and the Social Contract in Britain," NBER Working Papers 29677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Müller, Stefan & Proksch, Sven-Oliver, 2024. "Nostalgia in European Party Politics: A Text-Based Measurement Approach," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 993-1005, July.
    34. Giacomo De Luca & Thilo R. Huning & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2021. "Britain has had enough of experts? Social networks and the Brexit referendum," Discussion Papers 21/01, Department of Economics, University of York.
    35. Arnorsson, Agust & Zoega, Gylfi, 2018. "On the causes of Brexit," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 301-323.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Drinkwater & Colin Jennings, 2022. "The Brexit referendum and three types of regret," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 275-291, December.
    2. Crescenzi, Riccardo & Di Cataldo, Marco & Giua, Mara, 2020. "It’s not about the money. EU funds, local opportunities, and Euroscepticism," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Simon Rudkin & Lucy Barros & Paweł Dłotko & Wanling Qiu, 2024. "An economic topology of the Brexit vote," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 601-618, March.
    4. Berman, Nicolas & Brey, Bjorn & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy, 2023. "Panic Politics in the US West Coast," CEPR Discussion Papers 17874, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Stephen Drinkwater, 2021. "Brexit and the ‘left behind’: Job polarization and the rise in support for leaving the European Union," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(6), pages 569-588, November.
    6. Adrian Mehic, 2026. "Infrastructure expansion, tourism and electoral outcomes," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 93(371), pages 757-776, July.
    7. Ito, Gaku & Tran, Duc & Yoshida, Yuichiro, 2026. "Not gone with the wind: Long-run impact of herbicidal warfare in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    8. Maria Abreu & Özge Öner, 2020. "Disentangling the Brexit vote: The role of economic, social and cultural contexts in explaining the UK’s EU referendum vote," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(7), pages 1434-1456, October.
    9. Blackaby, David H. & Drinkwater, Stephen & Robinson, Catherine, 2020. "Regional Variations in the Brexit Vote: Causes and Potential Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 13579, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Fetzer, Thiemo & Edenhofer, Jacob & Garg, Prashant, 2025. "Local decline and populism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    11. Andreas Dür & Christoph Moser & Gabriele Spilker, 2020. "The political economy of the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 561-572, July.
    12. Fidrmuc, Jan & Hulényi, Martin & Tunalı, Çiğdem Börke, 2019. "Can money buy EU love?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Munroe, Ellen & Nosach, Anastasiia & Pedrozo, Moises & Guarnieri, Eleonora & Riano, Juan Felipe & Tur-Prats, Ana & Valencia Caicedo, Felipe, 2023. "The Legacies of War for Ukraine," CEPR Discussion Papers 17841, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Christian Ochsner, 2017. "Dismantled once, diverged forever? A quasi-natural experiment of Red Army misdeeds in post-WWII Europe," ifo Working Paper Series 240, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Lester, Cian, 2025. "Fiscal Policy and Political Ideology : Did Austerity Reshape Britains Political Landscape?," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 88, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    16. Alacevich, Caterina & Zejcirovic, Dijana, 2020. "Does violence against civilians depress voter turnout? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 841-865.
    17. Jerch, Rhiannon & Kahn, Matthew E. & Lin, Gary C., 2023. "Local public finance dynamics and hurricane shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Annie Tubadji & Thomas Colwill & Don Webber, 2021. "Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 247-277, April.
    19. Testa, Patrick A., 2021. "Shocks and the spatial distribution of economic activity: The role of institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 791-810.
    20. Alabrese, Eleonora & Fetzer, Thiemo, 2018. "Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 394, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:816. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.