IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/298.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cognitive Droughts

Author

Listed:
  • Lichand, Guilherme

    (Harvard University)

  • Mani, Anandi

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper tests whether uncertainty about future rainfall affects farmers’ decision-making through cognitive load. Behavioral theories predict that rainfall risk could impose a psychological tax on farmers, leading to material consequences at all times and across all states of nature, even within decisions unrelated to consumption smoothing, and even when negative rainfall shocks do not materialize down the line. Using a novel technology to run lab experiments in the field, we combine survey experiments with recent rainfall shocks to test the effects of rainfall risk on farmers’ cognition, and find that it decreases farmers’ attention, memory and impulse control, and increases their susceptibility to a variety of behavioral biases. Effects are quantitatively important, equivalent to losing 25% of one’s harvest at the end of the rainy season. Evidence that farmer’s cognitive performance is relatively less impaired in tasks involving scarce resources suggests that the effects operate through the mental bandwidth mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Lichand, Guilherme & Mani, Anandi, 2016. "Cognitive Droughts," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 298, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/298-2016_mani.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2010. "Are Risk Aversion and Impatience Related to Cognitive Ability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1238-1260, June.
    2. Rocha, Rudi & Soares, Rodrigo R., 2015. "Water scarcity and birth outcomes in the Brazilian semiarid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 72-91.
    3. Dean Karlan & Robert Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 597-652.
    4. Daniel J. Clarke, 2016. "A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 283-306, February.
    5. Dean Karlan & Sendhil Mullainathan & Margaret McConnell & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. "Getting to theTop of Mind: How Reminders Increase Saving," Working Papers id:2587, eSocialSciences.
    6. Elabed, Ghada & Carter, Michael R., 2015. "Compound-risk aversion, ambiguity and the willingness to pay for microinsurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 150-166.
    7. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    8. Schulz, Jonathan F. & Fischbacher, Urs & Thöni, Christian & Utikal, Verena, 2014. "Affect and fairness: Dictator games under cognitive load," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 77-87.
    9. Lin, Wanchuan & Liu, Yiming & Meng, Juanjuan, 2014. "The crowding-out effect of formal insurance on informal risk sharing: An experimental study," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 184-211.
    10. Powell, David, 2013. "A New Framework for Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects: Nonseparable Disturbance in the Presence of Covariates," Working Papers 824-1, RAND Corporation.
    11. Manisha Shah & Bryce Millett Steinberg, 2017. "Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 527-561.
    12. Leandro S. Carvalho & Stephan Meier & Stephanie W. Wang, 2016. "Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 260-284, February.
    13. repec:cup:judgdm:v:2:y:2007:i::p:137-168 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79.
    15. Shawn Cole & Daniel Stein & Jeremy Tobacman, 2014. "Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from a Long-Run Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 284-290, May.
    16. Frank Schilbach, 2019. "Alcohol and Self-Control: A Field Experiment in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1290-1322, April.
    17. Daniel J. Benjamin & Sebastian A. Brown & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2013. "Who Is ‘Behavioral’? Cognitive Ability And Anomalous Preferences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(6), pages 1231-1255, December.
    18. Harris, Christopher & Laibson, David, 2001. "Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 935-957, July.
    19. Nava Ashraf & Dean Karlan & Wesley Yin, 2006. "Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence From a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 635-672.
    20. Callen, Mike & Isaqzadeh, Mohammad & Long, James D. & Sprenger, Charles, 2014. "Violence and risk preference: experimental evidence from Afghanistan," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102932, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Ben Leo, Robert Morello, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto, and Stephen Davenport, 2015. "Do Mobile Phone Surveys Work in Poor Countries? - Working Paper 398," Working Papers 398, Center for Global Development.
    22. Michael Callen & Mohammad Isaqzadeh & James D. Long & Charles Sprenger, 2014. "Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 123-148, January.
    23. Charlotte Benson & Edward Clay, 1998. "Drought and Sub-Saharan African Economies," World Bank Publications - Reports 9884, The World Bank Group.
    24. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    25. Barbier, Edward B., 2010. "Poverty, development, and environment," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 635-660, December.
    26. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    27. Berg Joyce & Dickhaut John & McCabe Kevin, 1995. "Trust, Reciprocity, and Social History," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 122-142, July.
    28. Stefan Dercon & Jan Willem Gunning & Andrew Zeitlin, 2019. "The demand for insurance under limited trust: Evidence from a field experiment in Kenya," CSAE Working Paper Series 2019-06, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    29. Stein, Daniel, 2014. "Dynamics of demand for rainfall index insurance : evidence from a commercial product in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7035, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guilherme Lichand & Anandi Mani, 2020. "Cognitive droughts," ECON - Working Papers 341, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    2. Guilherme Lichand & Anandi Mani, 2020. "Cognitive Droughts," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Glenn W. Harrison & Jia Min Ng, 2019. "Behavioral insurance and economic theory: A literature review," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 133-182, July.
    4. Platteau, Jean-Philippe & De Bock, Ombeline & Gelade, Wouter, 2017. "The Demand for Microinsurance: A Literature Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-156.
    5. Haile, Kaleab K. & Nillesen, Eleonora & Tirivayi, Nyasha, 2020. "Impact of formal climate risk transfer mechanisms on risk-aversion: Empirical evidence from rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Dougherty, John P. & Flatnes, Jon Einar & Gallenstein, Richard A. & Miranda, Mario J. & Sam, Abdoul G., 2020. "Climate change and index insurance demand: Evidence from a framed field experiment in Tanzania," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 155-184.
    7. Stoeffler, Quentin & Opuz, Gülce, 2022. "Price, information and product quality: Explaining index insurance demand in Burkina Faso," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Insoo Cho & Peter F. Orazem, 2021. "How endogenous risk preferences and sample selection affect analysis of firm survival," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1309-1332, April.
    9. Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017. "Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions," NBER Working Papers 23625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Anita Mukherjee & Shawn Cole & Jeremy Tobacman, 2021. "Targeting weather insurance markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 757-784, September.
    11. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Choi, Syngjoo & Lee, Jungmin & Lee, Sokbae & Choi, Kyunghui, 2017. "Do Institutions Affect Social Preferences? Evidence from Divided Korea," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 865-888.
    12. Alex Imas & Michael A. Kuhn & Vera Mironova, 2015. "A History of Violence: Field Evidence on Trauma, Discounting and Present Bias," CESifo Working Paper Series 5338, CESifo.
    13. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Kumar, Neha & Magnan, Nicholas & Makhija, Simrin & de Nicola, Francesca & Spielman, David J. & Ward, Patrick S., 2019. "Ex ante and ex post effects of hybrid index insurance in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-17.
    14. Booth, Alison & Meng, Xin & Fan, Elliott & Zhang, Dandan, 2018. "The Intergenerational Behavioural Consequences of a Socio-Political Upheaval," CEPR Discussion Papers 13354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Wong, Ho Lun & Wei, Xiangdong & Kahsay, Haftom Bayray & Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Gardebroek, Cornelis & Osgood, Daniel E. & Diro, Rahel, 2020. "Effects of input vouchers and rainfall insurance on agricultural production and household welfare: Experimental evidence from northern Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Ceballos, Francisco & Robles, Miguel, 2020. "Demand heterogeneity for index-based insurance: The case for flexible products," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    17. Chuang, Yating & Schechter, Laura, 2015. "Stability of experimental and survey measures of risk, time, and social preferences: A review and some new results," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 151-170.
    18. Hallegatte,Stephane & Bangalore,Mook & Jouanjean,Marie Agnes, 2016. "Higher losses and slower development in the absence of disaster risk management investments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7632, The World Bank.
    19. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David & Rohorua, Halahingano & Stillman, Steven, 2019. "The long-term impact of international migration on economic decision-making: Evidence from a migration lottery and lab-in-the-field experiments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 99-115.
    20. Ayako Matsuda & Takashi Kurosaki, 2017. "Temperature and Rainfall Index Insurance in India," OSIPP Discussion Paper 17E002, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL Classification:;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.