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Where Will the World’s Poor Live? An Update on Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion

  • Andy Sumner
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    This paper updates the distribution of global poverty data and makes projections up to 2020. The paper asks the following question: Do the world’s extreme poor live in poor countries? It is argued that many of the world’s extreme poor already live in countries where the total cost of ending extreme poverty is not prohibitively high as a percentage of GDP. And in the not-too-distant future, most of the world’s poor will live in countries that do have the domestic financial scope to end at least extreme poverty. This would imply a reframing of global poverty as largely a matter of domestic distribution.

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    File URL: http://www.cgdev.org/files/1426481_file_Sumner_where_in_the_world_FINAL.pdf
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    Paper provided by Center for Global Development in its series Working Papers with number 305.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:305
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cgdev.org

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    9. Frank-Oliver Aldenhoff, 2007. "Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 239-260, September.
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    12. Christian Daude & Ángel Melguizo, 2010. "Taxation and More Representation?: On Fiscal Policy, Social Mobility and Democracy in Latin America," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 294, OECD Publishing.
    13. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Price Indexes, Inequality, and the Measurement of World Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 5-34, March.
    14. Sergei Suarez Dillon Soares & Rafael Guerreiro Osório & Fabio Veras Soares & Marcelo Medeiros & Eduardo Zepeda, 2007. "Conditional Cash Transfers in Brazil, Chile and Mexico: Impacts upon Inequality," Working Papers 35, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    15. Loayza, Norman & Rigolini, Jamele & Llorente, Gonzalo, 2012. "Do middle classes bring institutional reforms ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6015, The World Bank.
    16. Sabina Alkire, 2011. "Multidimensional Poverty and its Discontents," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp046, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    17. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2315.
    18. Paul Mosley & John Hudson & Arjan Verschoor, 2004. "Aid, Poverty Reduction and the 'New Conditionality'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F217-F243, 06.
    19. Kenny, Charles & Williams, David, 2001. "What Do We Know About Economic Growth? Or, Why Don't We Know Very Much?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-22, January.
    20. Palma, J.G., 2011. "Homogeneous middles vs. heterogeneous tails, and the end of the ‘Inverted-U’: the share of the rich is what it's all about," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1111, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Timothy Besley & Louise J. Cord, 2007. "Delivering on the Promise of Pro-Poor Growth : Insights and Lessons from Country Experiences," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7180.
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