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The determinants of the deviations from the interest rate parity condition

  • Uluc Aysun

    ()

    (University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL)

  • Sanglim Lee

    ()

    (Korea Energy Economics Institute, 132 Naesonsunhwan-ro, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea)

This paper shows that the deviation from the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition is equally large in advanced and emergingmarket economies. Using monthly data, and a GARCH-M model we find that a large share of these deviations in both country groups are explained by time varying risk premium. To more clearly identify risk premium shocks, we then estimate a two country, New Keynesian, DSGE model using a Bayesian methodology and quarterly data. The results suggest that at the quarterly frequency, the large deviations from the UIP condition and the high explanatory power of risk premium is only observed for emerging market economies.

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Paper provided by University of Central Florida, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2013-03.

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Length: 42 Pages
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfl:wpaper:2013-03
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Web page: http://www.bus.ucf.edu/economics/

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  1. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  3. Tigran Poghosyan & Evžen Kočenda & Petr Zemčik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
  4. Jeffrey Frankel & Jumana Poonawala, 2006. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 12496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Melander, Ola, 2009. "Uncovered Interest Parity in a Partially Dollarized Developing Country: Does UIP Hold in Bolivia? (And If Not, Why Not?)," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 716, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2009.
  6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  8. Uluc Aysun & Sami Alpanda, 2012. "International Transmission of Financial Shocks in an Estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2012-06, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
  9. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  10. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
  11. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  12. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Measuring the risk premium in uncovered interest parity using the component GARCH-M model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 167-176.
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