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The determinants of the deviations from the interest rate parity condition

Author

Listed:
  • Uluc Aysun

    () (University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL)

  • Sanglim Lee

    () (Korea Energy Economics Institute, 132 Naesonsunhwan-ro, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea)

Abstract

This paper shows that the deviation from the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition is equally large in advanced and emergingmarket economies. Using monthly data, and a GARCH-M model we find that a large share of these deviations in both country groups are explained by time varying risk premium. To more clearly identify risk premium shocks, we then estimate a two country, New Keynesian, DSGE model using a Bayesian methodology and quarterly data. The results suggest that at the quarterly frequency, the large deviations from the UIP condition and the high explanatory power of risk premium is only observed for emerging market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Uluc Aysun & Sanglim Lee, 2013. "The determinants of the deviations from the interest rate parity condition," Working Papers 2013-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:cfl:wpaper:2013-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    4. Tigran Poghosyan & Evžen KoÄenda & Petr ZemÄik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
    5. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    6. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    7. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    8. Melander, Ola, 2009. "Uncovered Interest Parity in a Partially Dollarized Developing Country: Does UIP Hold in Bolivia? (And If Not, Why Not?)," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 716, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2009.
    9. Alpanda, Sami & Aysun, Uluc, 2014. "International transmission of financial shocks in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 21-55.
    10. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    11. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Measuring the risk premium in uncovered interest parity using the component GARCH-M model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 167-176.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; Forward Premium Puzzle; Time Varying Risk Premium;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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