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Measuring the risk premium in uncovered interest parity using the component GARCH-M model

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  • Li, Dandan
  • Ghoshray, Atanu
  • Morley, Bruce

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the potential risk premium inherent in the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. The component GARCH-in-mean model is used to measure the time-varying risk premium in UIP and separates the permanent and transitory risks. The results show that the risk premium is significant in most countries studied in this analysis. This suggests that risk is an important part of modeling exchange rates and needs to be considered in both empirical and theoretical models. In general, the results suggest that emerging countries work better in terms of UIP and the risk premium than developed countries.

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  • Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Measuring the risk premium in uncovered interest parity using the component GARCH-M model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 167-176.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:24:y:2012:i:c:p:167-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.02.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk premium; Uncovered interest parity; Component GARCH-in-mean;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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