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The Effect of Terrorist Incidents on Capital Flows

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  • Randall Filer
  • Dragana Stanišic

Abstract

Current literature shows a significant negative impact of terrorism on countries economies. We explore this relationship in more detail. Using an unbalanced panel of over 160 countries for up to 25 years and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) we show a decrease in FDI as a consequence of terrorism. We also find evidence that FDI flows are more sensitive to terrorism than either portfolio investments or external debt flows. Finally, we test the hypothesis that terrorism has negative spill-over effects on FDI flows into neighboring countries and find evidence that cultural but not geographical closeness matters.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall Filer & Dragana Stanišic, 2012. "The Effect of Terrorist Incidents on Capital Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 3998, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3998
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    Cited by:

    1. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2020. "Shock and awe? Fiscal consequences of terrorism," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 723-748, February.
    2. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2021. "Democracy in the neighborhood and foreign direct investment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 449-477, February.
    3. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Khalil Ahmed Channa & Emmanuel Uche & Osamah Ibrahim Khalaf & Osamah Waheed Ali, 2022. "Analyzing the impacts of terrorism on innovation activity: A cross country empirical study," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 26(Special), pages 124-161, December.
    4. Syed Abdul Rehman KHAN & Zhang YU, 2020. "The Impact of Terrorism on Economics and Logistics Performance: An Empirical Study from the Perspective of SAARC Member States," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 99-117, December.
    5. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Emmanuel O. Nwosu, 2023. "Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(4), pages 528-557, December.
    6. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2022. "Does terrorism affect greenfield investment? A structural gravity approach," ThE Papers 22/06, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    7. Metaxas, Theodore & Kechagia, Polyxeni, 2017. "FDI and Terrorism in developing Asia: Approaches and Discussion," MPRA Paper 78165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Heri Beziæ & Tomislav Galoviæ & Petar Miševiæ, 2016. "The key goal of this research is to empirically determine the effects of terrorism on FDI of the selected EU and EEA member countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 333-362.
    9. Daniel Osberghaus, 2019. "The Effects of Natural Disasters and Weather Variations on International Trade and Financial Flows: a Review of the Empirical Literature," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 305-325, October.
    10. Hashmat Ali & Zulfiqar Ali Menon & Ajab Khan & Muhammad Muddassar Khan & Imad Ali & Khan Baz & Muhammad Arif & Manzoor Hussain & Waqar Jalal, 2020. "Terrorist Activities, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns: Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 139-148.
    11. Choi, Sangyup & Havel, Jiri, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Davidmac O. Ekeocha, 2024. "Terrorism and economic complexity in Africa: The unconditional impact of military expenditure," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 139-152, March.
    13. Zheng, Mingbo & Feng, Gen-Fu & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "Terrorism and green innovation in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    14. Tao Liu & Dongzhou Mei & Zihan Chen, 2024. "Financial openness and cross-border capital flows: perspectives from terrorist attacks as exogenous shocks," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(1), pages 193-211, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; terrorism; lending; portfolio investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General

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