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Intra-Industry Adjustment to Import Competition: Theory and Application to the German Clothing Industry

  • Horst Raff
  • Joachim Wagner

This paper uses an oligopoly model with heterogeneous firms to examine how an industry adjusts to rising import competition. The model predicts that in the short run the least efficient firms in the industry become inactive, surviving firms face a fall in output, mark-ups and profits, and the average productivity of survivors increases. These pro-competitive effects of import penetration on the domestic industry disappear in the long run. The predictions for the short run are confirmed in an empirical study of the German clothing industry.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2851.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2851
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  1. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Wagner, Joachim, 2005. "Exports and Productivity : A survey of the evidence from firm level data," HWWA Discussion Papers 319, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  3. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Development Working Papers 201, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  4. Ngo Van Long & Horst Raff & Frank Stähler, 2009. "Innovation and Trade with Heterogeneous Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 2796, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Svetlana Demidova & Hiau Looi Kee & Kala Krishna, 2006. "Do Trade Policy Differences Induce Sorting? Theory and Evidence from Bangladeshi Apparel Exporters," NBER Working Papers 12725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gu, Wulong & Baldwin, John R., 2006. "The Impact of Trade on Plant Scale, Production-Run Length and Diversification," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2006038e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  7. Andrew B Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Plants and productivity in international trade," Working Papers 00-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  8. Timothy Dunne & J. Bradford Jensen & Mark J. Roberts, 2009. "Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dunn05-1, July.
  9. Natalie Chen & Jean Imbs & Andrew Scott, 2006. "The dynamics of trade and competition," Working Paper Research 91, National Bank of Belgium.
  10. Fernandes, Ana M., 2007. "Trade policy, trade volumes and plant-level productivity in Colombian manufacturing industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 52-71, March.
  11. Francois, Joseph & Woerz, Julia, 2009. "Non-linear panel estimation of import quotas: The evolution of quota premiums under the ATC," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 181-191, July.
  12. Hiau Looi Kee & Kala Krishna, 2007. "Firm Level Heterogeneous Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from Bangladesh," NBER Working Papers 13698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Firm heterogeneity, exporting and foreign direct investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(517), pages F134-F161, 02.
  14. Alla Lileeva & Daniel Trefler, 2010. "Improved Access to Foreign Markets Raises Plant-Level Productivity... for Some Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1051-1099, August.
  15. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
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