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When the Going Gets Tough: the Impact of Health Shocks on Divorce

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Adrián López Artero
  • Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano
  • Daniela Vuri

Abstract

We analyze the impact of unexpected health shocks—defined as the sudden diagnosis of cancer, stroke, or heart attack—on the probability of couple dissolution using longitudinal representative data on older individuals (50+). We leverage the longitudinal nature of the HRS and utilize a quasi-experimental research approach that creates counterfactual scenarios for affected households by comparing them to households set to experience the same event in subsequent years. We find that experiencing a health shock significantly increases the probability of couple dissolution by approximately 19% of the mean divorce prevalence. This effect intensifies gradually over time rather than appearing immediately after the adverse health event. Additionally, we examine several mechanisms through which health shocks may influence divorce, focusing on three potential channels: mental health, cognitive decline, and financial strain. Our findings suggest that all three mechanisms likely play a role in mediating the relationship between health shocks and the increased probability of divorce.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Adrián López Artero & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano & Daniela Vuri, 2025. "When the Going Gets Tough: the Impact of Health Shocks on Divorce," CESifo Working Paper Series 11824, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11824
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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