IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2602.07486.html

Identification of Child Penalties

Author

Listed:
  • Dor Leventer

Abstract

A growing body of research estimates child penalties, the gender gap in the effect of parenthood on labor market earnings, using event studies that normalize treatment effects by counterfactual earnings. I formalize the identification framework underlying this approach, which I term Normalized Triple Differences (NTD), and show it does not identify the conventional target estimand when the parallel trends assumption in levels is violated. Insights from human capital theory suggest such violations are likely: higher-ability individuals delay childbirth and have steeper earnings growth, a mechanism that causes conventional estimates to understate child penalties for early-treated parents. Using Israeli administrative data, a bias-bounding exercise suggests substantial understatement for early groups. As a solution, I propose targeting the effect of parenthood on the gender earnings ratio and show this new estimand is identified under NTD.

Suggested Citation

  • Dor Leventer, 2026. "Identification of Child Penalties," Papers 2602.07486, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2602.07486
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.07486
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patricia Cortés & Jessica Pan, 2023. "Children and the Remaining Gender Gaps in the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1359-1409, December.
    2. James Heckman & Flavio Cunha, 2007. "The Technology of Skill Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 31-47, May.
    3. Kasey Buckles, 2008. "Understanding the Returns to Delayed Childbearing for Working Women," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 403-407, May.
    4. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    5. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    6. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
    7. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    8. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    9. James J. Heckman & Stefano Mosso, 2014. "The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 689-733, August.
    10. Katrine Jakobsen & Thomas H Jørgensen & Hamish Low, 2022. "Fertility and Family Labor Supply," Economics Series Working Papers 965, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Johanna Posch & Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimüller, 2019. "Child Penalties across Countries: Evidence and Explanations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 122-126, May.
    12. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    13. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Gabriel Leite-Mariante, 2023. "The Child Penalty Atlas," NBER Working Papers 31649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sieppi, Antti & Pehkonen, Jaakko, 2019. "Parenthood and gender inequality: Population-based evidence on the child penalty in Finland," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 5-9.
    15. Mathias Jensen & Abigail Adams & Barbara Petrongolo, 2024. "Birth Timing and Spacing: Implications for Parental Leave Dynamics and Child Penalties," Economics Series Working Papers 1048, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Valentina Melentyeva & Lukas Riedel, 2023. "Child Penalty Estimation and Mothers’ Age at First Birth," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 266, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    17. Simon Bensnes & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Edwin Leuven, 2023. "Reconciling estimates of the long-term earnings effect of fertility," Discussion Papers 1004, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    18. Marianne Bertrand & Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2010. "Dynamics of the Gender Gap for Young Professionals in the Financial and Corporate Sectors," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 228-255, July.
    19. Coady Wing & Seth M. Freedman & Alex Hollingsworth, 2024. "Stacked Difference-in-Differences," NBER Working Papers 32054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Berniell, Inés & Berniell, Lucila & Mata, Dolores de la & Edo, María & Marchionni, Mariana, 2021. "Gender gaps in labor informality: The motherhood effect," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    21. Kirill Borusyak & Xavier Jaravel & Jann Spiess, 2024. "Revisiting Event-Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3253-3285.
    22. Dalia Ghanem & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2022. "Selection and parallel trends," Papers 2203.09001, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    23. William Msemburi & Ariel Karlinsky & Victoria Knutson & Serge Aleshin-Guendel & Somnath Chatterji & Jon Wakefield, 2023. "The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 613(7942), pages 130-137, January.
    24. Henrik Kleven, 2022. "The Geography of Child Penalties and Gender Norms: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 2022-20, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    25. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2020. "Sampling‐Based versus Design‐Based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 265-296, January.
    26. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, September.
    27. Jonathan Roth, 2022. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 305-322, September.
    28. Nikolay Angelov & Per Johansson & Erica Lindahl, 2016. "Parenthood and the Gender Gap in Pay," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(3), pages 545-579.
    29. Dor Leventer, 2025. "Conditional Triple Difference-in-Differences," Papers 2502.16126, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    30. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Jakob Egholt Søgaard, 2019. "Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 181-209, October.
    31. Claudia Goldin, 2024. "Nobel Lecture: An Evolving Economic Force," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(6), pages 1515-1539, June.
    32. Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna & Hasanbasri, Ardina & Rios-Avila, Fernando, 2024. "Is There a Gendered Parenthood Penalty in Indonesian Labor Markets?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10973, The World Bank.
    33. David H. Autor, 2003. "Outsourcing at Will: The Contribution of Unjust Dismissal Doctrine to the Growth of Employment Outsourcing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-42, January.
    34. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
    35. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    36. Lundborg, Petter & Plug, Erik & Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz, 2024. "Is There Really a Child Penalty in the Long Run? New Evidence from IVF Treatments," IZA Discussion Papers 16959, IZA Network @ LISER.
    37. Arline T. Geronimus & Sanders Korenman, 1992. "The Socioeconomic Consequences of Teen Childbearing Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1187-1214.
    38. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    39. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 352-352.
    40. Jonathan Roth & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2023. "When Is Parallel Trends Sensitive to Functional Form?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 737-747, March.
    41. Justin McCrary & Heather Royer, 2011. "The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 158-195, February.
    42. Henrik Kleven, 2022. "The Geography of Child Penalties and Gender Norms: A Pseudo-Event Study Approach," NBER Working Papers 30176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gørtz, Mette & Sander, Sarah & Sevilla, Almudena, 2025. "Does the child penalty strike twice?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. Sun, Ang & Xia, Fang & Zhang, Xuan, 2025. "The motherhood penalty on health: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    3. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    4. Dominique Meurs & Pierre Pora, 2025. "Traditional Views, Egalitarian Views, and the Child Penalty: Insights from Immigrant Populations in France," Working Papers hal-04947430, HAL.
    5. Yung-Yu Tsai & Hsing-Wen Han & Kuang-Ta Lo & Tzu-Ting Yang, 2022. "The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners," Papers 2212.06223, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    6. Pora, Pierre, 2025. "The supply of nursing labor in French hospitals: Outflows, part-time work and motherhood," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Cheung, T. Terry & Kan, Kamhon & Yang, Tzu-Ting, 2025. "Parental responses to child disability: Gender differences and relative earnings," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Simon Bensnes & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Edwin Leuven, 2023. "Reconciling estimates of the long-term earnings effect of fertility," Discussion Papers 1004, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Glogowsky, Ulrich & Hansen, Emanuel & Sachs, Dominik & Lüthen, Holger, 2025. "The evolution of child-related gender inequality in Germany and the role of family policies, 1960–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Carnicelli, Lauro & Morando, Greta, 2025. "The Unequal Motherhood Penalty: Maternal Preferences and Education," IZA Discussion Papers 18140, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Nieto, Adrián, 2022. "Can subsidies to permanent employment change fertility decisions?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Zhang, Mingxue & Wang, Yue & Hou, Lingling, 2024. "Gender norms and the child penalty in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 277-291.
    13. Gregory Faletto, 2023. "Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects for Difference-in-Differences With Staggered Adoptions," Papers 2312.05985, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    14. Yung-Yu Tsai & Hsing-Wen Han & Kuang-Ta Lo & Tzu-Ting Yang, 2022. "The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence fromAdministrative Data on Lottery Winners," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 22-A007, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    15. Meng, Lingsheng & Zhang, Yunbin & Zou, Ben, 2023. "The motherhood penalty in China: Magnitudes, trends, and the role of grandparenting," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 105-132.
    16. Healy, Olivia & Heissel, Jennifer A., 2024. "Baby Bumps in the Road: The Impact of Parenthood on Job Performance, Human Capital, and Career Advancement," IZA Discussion Papers 16743, IZA Network @ LISER.
    17. Katrin Huber & Geske Rolvering, 2023. "Public child care and mothers’ career trajectories," Working Papers 228, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    18. Aguilar-Gomez, Sandra & Arceo-Gomez, Eva O. & De la Cruz Toledo, Elia, 2026. "Inside the black box of child penalties: Unpaid work and household structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    19. Mathias Jensen & Abigail Adams & Barbara Petrongolo, 2024. "Birth Timing and Spacing: Implications for Parental Leave Dynamics and Child Penalties," Economics Series Working Papers 1048, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Koopmans, Pim & van Lent, Max & Been, Jim, 2024. "Child Penalties and the Gender Gap in Home Production and the Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 16871, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2602.07486. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.