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Is There Really a Child Penalty in the Long Run? New Evidence from IVF Treatments

Author

Listed:
  • Lundborg, Petter

    (Lund University)

  • Plug, Erik

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz

    (Aarhus University)

Abstract

Newly matched data on in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments are used to estimate the long-run consequences of children on the labor market earnings of women and men (often referred to as child penalties). We measure long-run child penalties in IVF-treated families by comparing the earnings of successfully and unsuccessfully first-time treated women and men up to 25 years after the first IVF treatment. In the short run, we find a large penalty immediately after the birth of the first child. In the long run, however, we find that the child penalty fades out, disappears completely after 10 years, and even turns into a child premium after 15 years, offsetting the initial setbacks experienced when children are young. Our findings therefore challenge the widely held view that children are the primary drivers behind the long-run gender gap in earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Lundborg, Petter & Plug, Erik & Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz, 2024. "Is There Really a Child Penalty in the Long Run? New Evidence from IVF Treatments," IZA Discussion Papers 16959, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16959
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Johanna Posch & Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimüller, 2019. "Child Penalties across Countries: Evidence and Explanations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 122-126, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gloria Moroni & Cheti Nicoletti & Kjell Salvanes & Emma Tominey, 2025. "Gender equality through marriage," CEPEO Working Paper Series 25-16, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Moroni, Gloria & Nicoletti, Cheti & Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar & Tominey, Emma, 2025. "Gender equality through marriage," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 20/2025, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    3. Glogowsky, Ulrich & Hansen, Emanuel & Sachs, Dominik & Lüthen, Holger, 2025. "The evolution of child-related gender inequality in Germany and the role of family policies, 1960–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    4. Mathias Jensen & Abigail Adams & Barbara Petrongolo, 2024. "Birth Timing and Spacing: Implications for Parental Leave Dynamics and Child Penalties," Economics Series Working Papers 1048, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Dor Leventer, 2026. "Identification of Child Penalties," Papers 2602.07486, arXiv.org.
    6. Petter Lundborg & Johan Vikström & Negar Khaliliaraghi, 2026. "Gender Gaps Under Comparable Tasks: Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26028, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    7. Ilciukas, Julius & Lundborg, Petter & Plug, Erik & Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz, 2025. "The Only Child," IZA Discussion Papers 17641, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Bach, Nicoline Josephine & Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz & Smith, Nina, 2025. "Motherhood on Campus: Timing Childbirth during University Studies," IZA Discussion Papers 17603, IZA Network @ LISER.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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