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Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

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  • Stefan Leopold
  • Jens Ruhose
  • Simon Wiederhold

Abstract

The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioural models of migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Leopold & Jens Ruhose & Simon Wiederhold, 2023. "Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico," CESifo Working Paper Series 10588, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10588
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George J Borjas & Ilpo Kauppinen & Panu Poutvaara, 2019. "Self-selection of Emigrants: Theory and Evidence on Stochastic Dominance in Observable and Unobservable Characteristics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 143-171.
    2. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Platt Boustan & Katherine Eriksson, 2012. "Europe's Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses: Self-Selection and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1832-1856, August.
    3. Michèle V. K. Belot & Timothy J. Hatton, 2012. "Immigrant Selection in the OECD," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1105-1128, December.
    4. Cynthia Feliciano, 2005. "Educational selectivity in U.S. Immigration: How do immigrants compare to those left behind?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 131-152, February.
    5. Krieger, Tim & Renner, Laura & Ruhose, Jens, 2018. "Long-term relatedness between countries and international migrant selection," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 35-54.
    6. Matthias Parey & Jens Ruhose & Fabian Waldinger & Nicolai Netz, 2017. "The Selection of High-Skilled Emigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 776-792, December.
    7. Alexander Patt & Jens Ruhose & Simon Wiederhold & Miguel Flores, 2021. "International Emigrant Selection on Occupational Skills," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1249-1298.
    8. Pablo Ibarraran & Darren Lubotsky, 2007. "Mexican Immigration and Self-Selection: New Evidence from the 2000 Mexican Census," NBER Chapters, in: Mexican Immigration to the United States, pages 159-192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Orrenius, Pia M. & Zavodny, Madeline, 2005. "Self-selection among undocumented immigrants from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 215-240, October.
    10. Eric D. Gould & Omer Moav, 2016. "Does High Inequality Attract High Skilled Immigrants?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(593), pages 1055-1091, June.
    11. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. J. William Ambrosini & Giovanni Peri, 2012. "The Determinants and the Selection of Mexico–US Migrants," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 111-151, February.
    13. David McKenzie & Hillel Rapoport, 2010. "Self-Selection Patterns in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Role of Migration Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 811-821, November.
    14. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht, 2011. "Migration and Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 327-439, Elsevier.
    15. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    16. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 239-281, April.
    17. Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Understanding different migrant selection patterns in rural and urban Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 182-201.
    18. Robert Kaestner & Ofer Malamud, 2014. "Self-Selection and International Migration: New Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 78-91, March.
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    1. Caroline Neuber-Pohl & Damiano Pregaldini & Uschi Backes-Gellner & Sandra Dummert & Harald Pfeifer, 2023. "How negative labor supply shocks affect training in firms: Lessons from opening the Swiss-German border," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0203, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW), revised Nov 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international migration; selection; occupational skills; education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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