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Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao Chen
  • Hanwei Huang
  • Jiandong Ju
  • Ruoyan Sun
  • Jialiang Zhang

Abstract

We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regions to share risk and health resources, resulting in positive epidemiological externalities for regions with high R0s. We develop the Normalized Hat Algebra to analyze disease and mobility dynamics. Applying our model to US data, we find that cross-state mobility controls that hinder risk and resource sharing increase COVID-19 deaths and decrease social welfare. Conversely, by enabling "self-containment" and "self-healing," endogenous mobility reduces COVID-19 infections by 27.6% and deaths by 22.1%.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2024. "Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1981, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1981
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    SIRD model; spatial economy; endogenous mobility; basic reproduction number; Normalized Hat Algebra; containment policies; Covid-19;
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