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Employment Risk over the Life Cycle


  • Carolina Fugazza


In this paper we focus on the relative role of job finding and job exit in shaping the employment risk over the life cycle. Using Italian labor market data we document that the risk of being fired and the chance of reemployment display substantial heterogeneity depending on age, cohort and occupational characteristics. We show how the two risk combine in shaping the employment risk. Our results evidence that the life cycle employment probability profile is hump shaped with a peak at adult age and that this dynamic is mainly driven by the “U” –age profile of transitions from employment to unemployment. Moreover, we find that differences in job finding probabilities are mainly responsible for the heterogeneity in the employment risk across working groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Fugazza, 2012. "Employment Risk over the Life Cycle," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 280, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:280

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
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    5. Voicu, Alexandru, 2005. "Employment dynamics in the Romanian labor market. A Markov chain Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 604-639, September.
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    7. Antoni Calvó-Armengol & Matthew O. Jackson, 2004. "The Effects of Social Networks on Employment and Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 426-454, June.
    8. Hall, Robert E., 1979. "A theory of the natural unemployment rate and the duration of employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 153-169, April.
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    10. Vishwanath, Tara, 1989. "Job Search, Stigma Effect, and Escape Rate from Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 487-502, October.
    11. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1992. "Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-1391.
    12. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 626-653, November.
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    More about this item


    Employment risk; Duration; Heterogeneity; Semi-Markov Process;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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