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Employment Risk over the Life Cycle

  • Carolina Fugazza
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    In this paper we focus on the relative role of job finding and job exit in shaping the employment risk over the life cycle. Using Italian labor market data we document that the risk of being fired and the chance of reemployment display substantial heterogeneity depending on age, cohort and occupational characteristics. We show how the two risk combine in shaping the employment risk. Our results evidence that the life cycle employment probability profile is hump shaped with a peak at adult age and that this dynamic is mainly driven by the “U” –age profile of transitions from employment to unemployment. Moreover, we find that differences in job finding probabilities are mainly responsible for the heterogeneity in the employment risk across working groups.

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    File URL: http://www.carloalberto.org/assets/working-papers/no.280.pdf
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    Paper provided by Collegio Carlo Alberto in its series Carlo Alberto Notebooks with number 280.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:280
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    1. Gabriella Berloffa & Peter Simmons, . "Unemployment Risk, Labour Force Participation and Savings," Discussion Papers 97/7, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 1999. "Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households' balance sheets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Barbara Petrongolo, 1998. "Re-employment Probabilities and Returns to Matching," CEP Discussion Papers dp0406, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Voicu, Alexandru, 2005. "Employment dynamics in the Romanian labor market. A Markov chain Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 604-639, September.
    5. Vishwanath, Tara, 1989. "Job Search, Stigma Effect, and Escape Rate from Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 487-502, October.
    6. Matt Jackson, 2003. "The Effects of Social Networks on Employment and Inequality," Theory workshop papers 658612000000000032, UCLA Department of Economics.
    7. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April.
    8. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1992. "Loss of Skill during Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-91, November.
    9. Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February.
    10. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November.
    11. Stuart O. Schweitzer & Ralph E. Smith, 1974. "The persistence of the discouraged worker effect," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 27(2), pages 249-260, January.
    12. Hall, Robert E., 1979. "A theory of the natural unemployment rate and the duration of employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 153-169, April.
    13. van den Berg, Gerard J, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 255-77, April.
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