IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/1309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fuel Panics - insights from spatial agent-based simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Eben Upton
  • William J. Nuttall

Abstract

The United Kingdom has twice suffered major disruption as a result of fuel panics first in September 2000 coincident with a wave of fuel protests and more recently in March 2012 following politcal warnings of possible future supply chain disruption. In each case the disruption and economic consequences were serious. Fuel distribution is an example of a supply chain. Approaches to supply-chain planning based on linear programming are poorly suited to modelling non-equilibrium effects, while coarse-grained system dynamics models often fail to capture local phenomena which contribute to the evolution of global demand. In this Paper, we demonstrate that agent-based techniques offer a powerful framework for cosimulation of supply chains and consumers under conditions of transient demand. In the case of fuel panic crisis, we show that even a highly abstract model can reproduce a range of transient phenomena seen in the real world, and present a set of practical recommendations for policymakers faced with panic-buying.

Suggested Citation

  • Eben Upton & William J. Nuttall, 2013. "Fuel Panics - insights from spatial agent-based simulation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1309, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1309.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herbert Simon, 2000. "Bounded rationality in social science: Today and tomorrow," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 1(1), pages 25-39, March.
    2. Anderson, Edward, 2011. "A new model for cycles in retail petrol prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 436-447, April.
    3. Boctor, Fayez F. & Renaud, Jacques & Cornillier, Fabien, 2011. "Trip packing in petrol stations replenishment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 86-98, January.
    4. Zhang, T. & Nuttall, W.J., 2007. "An Agent Based Simulation Of Smart Metering Technology Adoption," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0760, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuel Panics; Agent Based Simulation; Supply Chain;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy
    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.