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Dynamic provisioning: a buffer rather than a countercyclical tool?

Author

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  • Santiago Fernandez de Lis
  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether dynamic provisioning systems act as a dampener -as intended- or as a buffer. After briefly reviewing the literature, we explain the rationale for dynamic provisions and analyze the experience of three of the few countries that adopted them: Spain, Colombia and Peru. We conclude that in the case of Spain, which is the only one where dynamic provisions worked over a complete cycle, the fact that market discipline only operated in the downturn implied that the system acted more as a buffer than as a dampener. We also observe that even rule-based systems tend to be applied in a discretionary way, since they require a very reliable calibration of the cycle \\\"ex ante\\\", an assumption that has proven unrealistic. The comparison of the Spanish system versus the Peruvian and Colombian raises interesting policy conclusions on whether dynamic provisioning should be applied differently to industrial versus emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Alicia Garcia-Herrero, 2012. "Dynamic provisioning: a buffer rather than a countercyclical tool?," Working Papers 1222, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1222
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:finsta:v:29:y:2017:i:c:p:92-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.
    3. Basak, Deepal & Murray, Alexander & Zhao, Yunhui, 2017. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for More Stringent Regulation?," MPRA Paper 81373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Zilberman, Roy, 2015. "Loan Loss Provisioning Rules, Procyclicality, and Financial Volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 301-315.
    5. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.
    6. repec:clh:resear:v:8:y:2015:i:34 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; macroprudential; anticyclical;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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