IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/awi/wpaper/0553.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tracking Under-Reported Financial Flows: China’s Development Finance and the Aid-Conflict Nexus Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Strange, Austin M.
  • Parks , Bradley
  • Tierney, Michael J.
  • Fuchs, Andreas
  • Dreher , Axel

Abstract

China’s development finance is sizable but reliable information is scarce. To address critical information gaps, we introduce a new open source methodology for collecting project-level development finance information and create a database of Chinese official finance to Africa from 2000-2011. Our initial data collection efforts found that China’s official finance commitments amount to approximately US$ 73 billion over the 2000-2011 period. We provide details on 1,511 non-investment projects to 50 African countries. We use this database to extend previous research on the aid-conflict nexus. Our results show that sudden withdrawals of “traditional” aid are only more likely to induce conflict in the absence of sufficient alternative funding from China. More broadly, these findings highlight the importance of gathering better data on the development activities of China and other non-traditional donors to better understand the link between foreign aid and conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Strange, Austin M. & Parks , Bradley & Tierney, Michael J. & Fuchs, Andreas & Dreher , Axel, 2014. "Tracking Under-Reported Financial Flows: China’s Development Finance and the Aid-Conflict Nexus Revisited," Working Papers 0553, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0553
    Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-161502
    File Function: Frontdoor page on HeiDOK
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/16150/1/Strange_Parks_Tierney_Fuchs_Dreher_2014_dp553.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fuchs, Andreas & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2013. "The Needy Donor: An Empirical Analysis of India’s Aid Motives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 110-128.
    2. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    3. de Ree, Joppe & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2009. "Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-313, March.
    4. King, Gary & Lowe, Will, 2003. "An Automated Information Extraction Tool for International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 617-642, July.
    5. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "AID, Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 435-450.
    6. Mona Lyne & Daniel Nielson & Michael Tierney, 2009. "Controlling coalitions: Social lending at the multilateral development banks," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 407-433, December.
    7. Konstantinos Drakos, 2007. "The size of under‐reporting bias in recorded transnational terrorist activity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(4), pages 909-921, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Bluhm & Martin Gassebner & Sarah Langlotz & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "Fueling conflict? (De)escalation and bilateral aid," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 244-261, March.
    2. Daniele Pianeselli, 2016. "Does The one who pays the piper really call the tune? OECD and Chinese aid to infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0204, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    3. Martorano, Bruno & Metzger, Laura & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2020. "Chinese development assistance and household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Zhiming Cheng & Russell Smyth, 2016. "Why Give it Away When You Need it Yourself? Understanding Public Support for Foreign Aid in China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 53-71, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oeindrila Dube & Suresh Naidu, 2010. "Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia," Working Papers 197, Center for Global Development.
    2. Richard Bluhm & Martin Gassebner & Sarah Langlotz & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "Fueling conflict? (De)escalation and bilateral aid," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 244-261, March.
    3. Wong, Pui-Hang, 2017. "How development aid explains (or not) the rise and fall of insurgent attacks in Iraq," MERIT Working Papers 2017-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Angelika J. Budjan & Andreas Fuchs, 2021. "Democracy and Aid Donorship," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 217-238, November.
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2013. "Structural vulnerability and excessive public indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 816-832.
    6. M. Christian Lehmann, 2020. "Aiding refugees, aiding peace?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(5), pages 1687-1704, September.
    7. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2020. "The effect of international development assistance (IDA) on conflict. A fuzzy regression discontinuity approach," MPRA Paper 101841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Fuchs, Andreas & Kunze, Sven & Strobl, Eric, 2020. "Distortions in aid allocation of United Nations flash appeals: Evidence from the 2015 Nepal earthquake," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Bosker, Maarten & de Ree, Joppe, 2014. "Ethnicity and the spread of civil war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 206-221.
    10. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    11. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2012. "Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War," NBER Working Papers 17794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Julian Donaubauer & Dierk Herzer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Aid under Post-Conflict Conditions: A Sector-Specific Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 720-736, April.
    13. Paul Bezerra & Alex Braithwaite, 2016. "Locating foreign aid commitments in response to political violence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 333-355, December.
    14. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Recent patterns of post-conflict aid: Did donors help sustain peace?," Kiel Working Papers 2043, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Marcoux & Johannes Urpelainen, 2014. "Choosing international organizations: When do states and the World Bank collaborate on environmental projects?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 413-440, December.
    16. Hernandez, Diego & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2017. "Politics of religiously motivated lending: An empirical analysis of aid allocation by the Islamic Development Bank," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 910-929.
    17. Edwin Muchapondwa & Daniel Nielson & Bradley Parks & Austin M. Strange & Michael J. Tierney, 2014. "'Ground-Truthing' Chinese Development Finance in Africa: Field Evidence from South Africa and Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-031, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Ravetti, Chiara & Sarr, Mare & Swanson, Tim, 2018. "Foreign aid and political instability in resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 277-294.
    19. Anke Hoeffler, 2014. "Can international interventions secure the peace?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 75-94, March.
    20. Zürcher, Christoph, 2017. "What Do We (Not) Know About Development Aid and Violence? A Systematic Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 506-522.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Development Finance; Foreign Aid; Non-DAC Donors; South-South Cooperation; China; Aid Shocks; Violent Armed Conflict.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/awheide.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabi Rauscher The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Gabi Rauscher to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/awheide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.